Crowd Forecast News Report #291

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport042119.pdf

Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (April 22nd to 26th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 61.5%
Lower: 38.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: 23.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 63.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 63.4%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 63.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 0.4%

Responses Submitted This Week: 28
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 40.1

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 58% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 63.9% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 59% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.11% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 61.5% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 59 times in the previous 290 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 58% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.06% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 58% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.4%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 36.4%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• In the short term (days) price is oscillating downwards. The 50day linear regression channels show an upward trend at an equivalent slope of 45% PA
• st trend
• Post holiday seasonality
• Guess
• Mueller case is behind us now.
• still trending up
• ok
• Continues above trend line…

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Can’t break resistance
• Bearish Divergences
• Rest time.
• waiting to see if wave 4 is starting
• The S&P has done well for a few weeks. It’s probably time for a mild sideways-to-down spell.
• The market is overbought and needs some downside action. This is the biggest week for earnings reports.
• Ever Increasing % down volume
• There were a key reversal day om yhe s&p 500 the previous week

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Question #4. What is your best piece of advice for trade management?

• Use your best I dicator and shepherd each trade.
• Understand the Industry you are investing in.
• Strict control
• only bet 50% of your wins each time. Ghost trade if you make a loss, at the first win revert to real money
• stops
• ok
• Manage your sizing
• Position size – scale in and scale out
• Don’t stick with a losing stock trade too long. It’s usually a better to switch that position into a better percentage play.
• Trailing Stop

Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Ok

Join us for this week’s shows:

Crowd Forecast News Episode #221
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, April 22nd, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!

Analyze Your Trade Episode #74
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, April 23rd, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– A.J. Brown of TradingTrainer.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)