Crowd Forecast News Report #321

AD: The Market Map: A Simple Roadmap to Anticipate Market Direction


The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport111719.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 18th to 22nd)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 56.0%
Lower: 44.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 12.0%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 67.6%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.5%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 67.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -0.2%

Responses Submitted This Week: 26
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 34.9

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 56% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 46.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 62% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.30% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 56.0% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 52 times in the previous 321 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 56% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.10% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 56% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.8%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 81.8%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


AD: The Market Map: A Simple Roadmap to Anticipate Market Direction


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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Good economic news !
• trend is still up and no sign of a correction yet
• still finishing wave 5
• trend
• seasonnal time for higher stock market
• seasonal conditions, holiday shopping
• Law of physics, a body in motion tends to remain in motion. In this case UP. Not too confident that all is well in the economy and I trade with caution unless we build a solid base at these market levels and then blast off. So, the transd is UP until it is NOT!

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• We are ready for a reverion, to men,,way hi 9% above 50dma,,
• Flat to down a lot of volume came into DIS this week profit taking inevitable
• Continued overbought up to and including the monthly charts, rising on declining momentum, pundits are running out of solid credible reasons for a continued rally.
• market to enter a holding pattern to much dumb money sploshing around 4x normal volume on DIS on an upday signals major top in that stock and the rest of the market
• since I’m long, it must be going lower
• The S&P is approaching its upper Bollinger band at about 3126; and it tends to fall back when it hits it.
• Hopium will fade again when people start to realize that China trade rumors are just rumors being foisted on the american public by Trump and his lying co-conspirators. Read China’s word . They will not enter into an agreement without a release of all tariffs.
• Market is losing upside momentum. Earnings reports are coming to an end except for retail.


AD: The Market Map: A Simple Roadmap to Anticipate Market Direction


Question #4. What procedures do you use for trade management? (e.g. position size, stops, scaling in or out, etc.)

• 8% stop loss—
• Stops
• Position sizing is critical and always honor your “hard” stop.
• position sizing and stops
• stops
• position size
• I set position sizes carefully, and exit losing trades more quickly than in earlier years.
• Good solid rules that I have developed over the years.
• trailing stop
• enter consumer discretionary spending companies
• My trade management depends on what type of trade I am in. Options are given a lot of room to work given that they are already very limited risk. Sometimes a stop on a new stock or ETF position as I scale into it and build a position. Some things I follow have a natural cycle and I will never take them off, selling options for income. Unless I see something very bad in the wind and accumulated profits are fast disappearing, my “forever stocks” are a hold until they are not.


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #246
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, November 18th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #103
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 19th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Felix Frey of OptionsGeek.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


AD: The Market Map: A Simple Roadmap to Anticipate Market Direction

Synergy Traders #6 – Trading Strategies for the Fourth Quarter

AD: Need more capital to trade? Click for here.


This event was created by TradeOutLoud.com and TimingResearch.com and these presentations were recorded on Saturday, November 16th, 2019.


Synergy Traders #6.1: Market Profile & Volume Analytics Strategies with Damon Pavlatos

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


Synergy Traders #6.2: Maxamize Profits Using Technical Analysis with Anka Metcalf

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


Synergy Traders #6.3: Trading the Death Star with E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


Synergy Traders #6.4: Fact-Backed Rules-Based Trading with Jake Bernstein

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


Synergy Traders #6.5: The RIGHT Way to Assess Momentum & Order Flow with Mark Sachs

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


AD: Need more capital to trade? Click for here.

Analyze Your Trade Episode #102

AD: 4 Trading Days Every Week Don’t Matter!


Watch here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:

On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.

New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunesPodbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.

Lineup for this Episode:
– Steven Brooks of StevenBrooks.co
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)


Guest Special Offers:


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AYT111219

Crowd Forecast News Episode #245

AD: 4 Trading Days Every Week Don’t Matter!


Watch here or on YouTube (Note, this is an audio-only episode):

Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:


On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.

Lineup for this Episode:
– Sam Bourgi of TradingGods.net
– Jake Wujastyk of TrendSpider.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

You can download this week’s and all past reports here.


AD: 4 Trading Days Every Week Don’t Matter!


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By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

CFN111119

Crowd Forecast News Report #320

AD: 4 Trading Days Every Week Don’t Matter!


The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport111019.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 11th to November 15th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 46.4%
Lower: 53.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -7.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 65.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 64.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 67.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -3.2%

Responses Submitted This Week: 28
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 35.2

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 62% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 71.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 59% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.46% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 53.6% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 21 times in the previous 319 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct 38% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.14% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 62% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


AD: 4 Trading Days Every Week Don’t Matter!


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 65.9%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 64.3%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 67.5%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• trend
• Toppy, Market tippy FEd d0ne l00sening
• Chart and seasonality
• TARIFFS
• Option Expirations Week
• The market is melting up because of FOMO and many companies reporting better than expected earnings and forward guidance. I also think we’ll continue to melt up thru the end of the year with 3300 S&P in sight.
• The trend continues

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• The market may have a resistance
• Reversion to the mean of the trend
• China, Iran, Fed
• momentum is starting to roll over. Earnings reports are slowing down.
• Overbought, overvalued, low volumes, and reduced momentum.
• WE AR 5+% ABOVE 50DMA ==usually an area to be cautious of drop or pullback
• We all know it will only be up as long as trump keeps playing his china story. I still think it must go down and lower than this week
• Because of impeachment hearings
• No reason – that’s why my confidence is only 50%. More specifically – there are SO many fundamental as well as technical reasons – but none of those reasons have stopped the uptrend yet.
• Momentum from last week to be reversed.
• The S&P has reached its top trend line and Bollinger band top. It may move up a bit, but heavy resistance at 3100; so downward it should go.


AD: 4 Trading Days Every Week Don’t Matter!


Question #4. Which trading platforms or brokers do you like the best for executing your trades?

• Tradestation
• Interactive Brokers Pro
• Ninja.
• TD Ameritrade
• I use Fidessa and ADMIS(UK)
• tda,tastyworks
• schwab
• Interactive Brokers
• E-Trade
• Schwab. TD Ameritrade
• TradeStation
• None I want to ✔ Lightspeed
• I do not know
• ThinkorSwim for options – Ninjatrader for futures.
• TD Ameritrade
• I like e*trade
• I’ld like to know


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Useless equity markets totally manipulated with flood of free money that was never printed nor has any value.


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #245
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, November 11th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Sam Bourgi of TradingGods.net
– Jake Wujastyk of TrendSpider.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #102
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 12th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Steven Brooks of StevenBrooks.co
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


AD: 4 Trading Days Every Week Don’t Matter!

Analyze Your Trade Episode #101

AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


Watch here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:

On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.

New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunesPodbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.

Lineup for this Episode:
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Episode Timeline (links open to YouTube):
0:00 – Introductions.
3:00 – BABA
7:00 – ACB
9:00 – KLAC
11:00 – NUGT
14:00 – CRM
17:00 – AMD
19:00 – GBTC
22:00 – BIIB
24:00 – Individual trade ideas.
38:00 – TLT/USO/KSA/GLD/GDX/CSX
58:00 – Closing statements.


Email Alerts

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AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


AYT110519

Crowd Forecast News Episode #244

AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


Watch here or on YouTube (Note, this is an audio-only episode):

Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:


On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.

Lineup for this Episode:
– Erik Gebhard of Altavest.com
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

You can download this week’s and all past reports here.


AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

CFN110419

1

Crowd Forecast News Report #319

AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport110319.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 4th to November 8th)?

Higher: 71.4%
Lower: 28.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 42.9%

The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 70.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 70.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: -0.5%

Responses Submitted This Week: 22
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 35.3

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 59% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 70.8% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 64% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.15% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 71.4% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 32 times in the previous 318 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 59% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.16% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 59% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.9%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 81.8%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Employment strong
• daily AND weekly Elliott waves – still arriving at targets for wave 5 finish
• momentum
• QE and positive earnings will attract investors.
• new highs
• Friday’s move up looks like it could lead to more of a breakout from the congestion around 3000. Also, The Fed looks like they will pause on lowering interest rates, suggesting that they think that the economy will do better than expected.
• trend
• Gearing up for holiday season

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Market overbought needs a breather


AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


Question #4. What are the most important mental and emotional characteristics for traders to develop?

• When you find out let me know.
• Manage stressEmployment
• Discipline and mental clarity
• patience
• Disciplined approach.
• Don’t get tied to a losing position, hoping against hope, that the direction will reverse.
• Attention and patience
• Mental toughness with emotions breakdown.


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Donald Trump greatest President since JFK!! Go Donald GO!!


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #244
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, November 4th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Erik Gebhard of Altavest.com
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #101
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 5th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.

Synergy Traders #5: “Halloweed” Online Cannabis Traders Conference

AD: Need more capital to trade? Click for here.


This event was created by TradeOutLoud.com and TimingResearch.com and these presentations were recorded on Thursday, October 31st, 2019.


Synergy Traders #5.1: Pot Stock Labs with Lance Ippolito

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


Synergy Traders #5.2: Cannabis Stocks: Building a Position with David Moadel

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


Synergy Traders #5.3: Swing Trading Cannabis Stocks with Anka Metcalf

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


AD: Need more capital to trade? Click for here.

Analyze Your Trade Episode #100

AD: Cancel your plans Tuesday night, watch this instead.


Watch here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:

On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.

New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunesPodbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.

Lineup for this Episode:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
3:00 -S&P500
5:00 – AAPL
8:00 – CFX
10:00 – SLV
14:00 – HD
16:00 – EWZ
20:00 – VEEV
26:00 – AMT
31:00 – Individual trade ideas.
37:00 – ABT
39:00 – MU
42:00 – EAF
43:00 – BDH
48:00 – FIT
51:00 – VRSN
54:00 – TGT
55:00 – TREX
57:00 – ALB
59:00 – Closing statements.


Guest Special Offers:

From Dean: “Beyond the Noise” FREE Weekly Newsletter

From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

AD: Cancel your plans Tuesday night, watch this instead.


AYT102919

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