Crowd Forecast News Report #324

AD: [Workshop] 16 Hour Jump Trades.


The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport120819.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (December 9th to 13th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 58.6%
Lower: 41.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: 17.2%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 64.7%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 64.7%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 64.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 0.1%

Responses Submitted This Week: 33
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 34.0

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 60% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 55.0% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 60% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.07% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 58.6% predicting Higher with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 45 times in the previous 323 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 60% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.26% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 60% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


AD: [Workshop] 16 Hour Jump Trades.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 53.0%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 81.8%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• President Trump putting Americans to work!
• year-end rally
• Best six months of the year historically
• still finishing wave 5
• Last week finished on a upswing >> but last year saw me lose 25% in the last week. // I’m becoming “Bah, humbug” when Christmas is on the horizon.
• liquidity reelection
• Unemployment
• historic.
• The robust jobs report should prompt the market to continue up, perhaps at a steeper climb.
• Earnings and Momentum
• fundamentals
• Correction over and into the Santa Rally

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• The economy in all stats is receding. The trade war will end with no winners, only losers. The job numbers are up, because 300,000 people are reaching the age 65 every month. The number of jobs is down over 25,000 each month. The wages are up because of the increases in the minimum wages. The stock market is up only because of stock buybacks by the companies.
• china will not make a deal that is acceptable
• Resistance
• It will always go up as FED and Treasury are supporting trump so that his calls and longs make billions for him plus to show of his treacherous popularity. Whatever we do this market is bound to forever go up and Trump n his billionaiore team is making a billion per week out of all. All our views or tech readings are worthless now. Trump is making his fortunes while he shows off how big he is. Fed is pumping billions each day so what stand shorts stand>
• Needs a 2nd leg down before a final new high, and then a collapse.
• Profit taking and tax loss selling will dominate the market.
• Global monetary issues.


AD: [Workshop] 16 Hour Jump Trades.


Question #4. What indicator influences your trading the most?

• interest rates / fed actions / jim grant
• RSI
• moving average, news
• 200 sma
• moving averages-trends
• RSI + MACD
• RSI
• 50 day moving average EMA maybe i guess i think sometimed
• Price Action
• Trend lines, Channels, Bollinger bands.
• Chart patterns
• Just using.price action with VWAP
• Volume
• The trend of the top 20 stocks is driving the market upwards … Most stocks are actually struggling this year. //// I prefer to look at volume as my leading indicator (sometimes!!)


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Profit
• “Go President Trump Go!!”
• With tariffs set to rise on Dec 15, I will get out of longs by Friday and wait
• Totally manipulated unnatural market bound to crush anyone
• I just enjoy your information, and it seems to be quite timely.


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #248
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, December 9th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Dan Passarelli of MarketTakerMentoring.com
– Mike Pisani of SmartOptionTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #105
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, December 10th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


AD: [Workshop] 16 Hour Jump Trades.

1

Synergy Traders #8 – Best Year End Trading Strategies

AD: [Workshop] 16 Hour Jump Trades.


This event was created by TradeOutLoud.com and TimingResearch.com and these presentations were recorded on Saturday, December 7th, 2019.


Synergy Traders #8.1: The Option Professor Market Update with Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


Synergy Traders #8.2: Why Scalping the Futures E-Minis is Less Stressful and Much More Profitable with Marina Villatoro of TheTraderChick.com

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


AD: [Workshop] 16 Hour Jump Trades.


Synergy Traders #8.3: The 3 Best Volume Patterns to Trade in Today’s Market with Barry Burns of TopDogTrading.com

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


Synergy Traders #8.4: Learn how to day trade Futures at the NY session Open with Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


Synergy Traders #8.5: How to Use Multi-Time Frame Analysis to Improve Your Trading with Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


AD: [Workshop] 16 Hour Jump Trades.

Analyze Your Trade Episode #104

AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


Watch here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:

On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.

New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunesPodbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.

Lineup for this Episode:
– Harry Boxer of TheTechTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


AYT120319

Crowd Forecast News Episode #247

AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


Watch here or on YouTube (Note, this is an audio-only episode):

Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:


On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.

Lineup for this Episode:
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

You can download this week’s and all past reports here.


AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

CFN120219

Crowd Forecast News Report #323

AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport120119.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (December 2nd to 6th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 55.0%
Lower: 45.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 10.0%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 65.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 66.5%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 64.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: 2.0%

Responses Submitted This Week: 20
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 34.2

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 60% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 53.6% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 70% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.76% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 55.0% predicting Higher with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 52 times in the previous 322 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 60% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.24% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 60% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.8%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 81.8%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Rally for the next three weeks !!
• trend
• The Federal Reserve mentioned a new normal’ I think maybe is ok i guess maybe
• This weekend NOV 30 2019 is of course, as usual, pivotal, we must see what global factor does what, and some more concrete metrics of the Friday and Saturday shopping results, Friday evening Beijing reported rather increased productivity numbers, out of the high 49 area, now at the 54 area, of course is it real, so let’s say it is, that’s a positive, however other corner of mouth calls the resolution ‘meddling’ while millions are cordoned into the electroperimeter up in the NW as if its just fine, and we have magnificent citizens walking together in HK with their held high USA Flags, a rather amazing tribute to just how blessed we are, and held in such esteem, while our Beijing leaning candiodates promote Fidel style ‘progressive_ism, a rather OxyMoronic as two photos would go together HK with flags of USA and BS EW etc calls to conduct financial vasectomies on those such as Leon Cooperman who grew up as a plain simple kid in Brooklyn and used smarts to build his multibillion company, he took the ‘buffet giving pledge’ many years ago and has given hundreds of millions already, and yet he and similar are decried as selfish… uh the total opposite of selfish is the thankful corporation creators that bring wonderful jobs and develop and refine the best products and services anywhere… ….so, in perspective, we see what next.. if we get more of same as full month, its continuation flow a go.
• Build on momentum.
• End of year tax loss selling
• Historical.
• Consumer Spending

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• We need a retrace this wk
• end of year tax loss selling and portfolio rebalancing to continue
• 3 bar reversal
• China noise
• S&P at top of 10-month channel, as seen in early May & late July, suggesting that a decline is on tap.
• Trend has moved to sideways. China talks stall over Hong Kong.


AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


Question #4. Who or what first inspired you to become a trader?

• money,unfortunately I didn’t make any
• Money!
• Larry Williams
• to get a part time job.
• My father.
• Mom
• My dad r.i.p. had little to invest and yet found a way to do so, although he hadn’t learned of other than buy and hold into the pain zones.. still I always saw the value of and experienced the tremendous success of real solid corporations that could and did bring value to all of our lives.
• Stupidity I believed all you crooked bastards and it has cost me over $100K
• Losses
• I’ve always liked playing with numbers and patterns. At first, it was paper-trading.
• Dont remember
• Jim Slate
• I’m retired/something to do.
• 40 years ago when I was 14 I seen advertisement :Invest for Success”, consisted of Cassettes and book. I saved my paper route money and bough it. Today I’m trading more than I was 10 or 20 years ago.


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Think Gold & Silver will move one way or another for sure this week!
• How about SEND US A LINK OF ALL you collect : the comments and the poll data and let us see the results and read the other comments like such as I have submitted. HOWEVER POST THEM ALL AS ANONYMOUS, I PREFER MY FULL PRIVACY, Please.
TimingResearch Response: Thanks! That’s exactly what we’ve been doing for over 6 years with this project! Hope you enjoy the info.


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #247
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, December 2nd, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #104
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, December 3rd, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Harry Boxer of TheTechTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Synergy Traders Event #8
Join us for this event. This is your chance to be the first to get the secrets, tips, tricks, and tactics from top trading educators.

Date and Time:
– Saturday, December 7th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– TBA

Click here to find out more!


AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.

Synergy Traders #7 – Black Friday and Cyber Monday Trading Strategies

AD: eBook: The Options Answer.


This event was created by TradeOutLoud.com and TimingResearch.com and these presentations were recorded on Monday, November 25th, 2019.


Synergy Traders #7.1: Best Trading Strategies with John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


Synergy Traders #7.2: Live Market Analysis Using Supply And Demand with Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


AD: eBook: The Options Answer.


Synergy Traders #7.3: Learn How To Trade Futures At The New York Session Open with Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


Synergy Traders #7.4: Developing Dynamic Systems with Brian Miller of OptimizedTrading.com

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


Synergy Traders #7.5: Finding Unusual Options Activity with Bryan Klindworth of AlphaShark.com

Watch the video here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:


AD: eBook: The Options Answer.

Crowd Forecast News Report #322

AD: eBook: The Options Answer.


The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport112419.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 25th to 29th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 53.6%
Lower: 46.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: 7.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 64.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 65.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 64.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 0.4%

Responses Submitted This Week: 28
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 34.6

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 70% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 53.6% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 56% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.24% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 53.6% predicting Higher with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 20 times in the previous 321 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 70% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.66% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 70% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


AD: eBook: The Options Answer.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.7%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 81.8%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• History.
• holidays
• End year
• The S&P stayed above its 20-day MA this past week on a small dip; and it looks like that dip is being bought. The market has been up on 75% of Thanksgiving weeks since 1945.
• Holiday effect
• Stable market
• Best six months of year historically
• Short week

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• this market is propped up by low interest rates when that ends it will crash worse than 2008
• propped up by artificially low interest rates farther from inflationary recovey but not falling into a recession either
• short holiday week, traders do not want to hold a lot over long-term weekend
• market heading to support3071..3031
• 6 mo stochastic falling
• Mkt needs a pull back before it continues up into the Xmas rally.
• orderly retrace in the uptrend
• Trade talks stall in reaction to Hong Kong bill passage
• Looks like ending diagonal on daily and on weekly.
• Trade concerns


AD: eBook: The Options Answer.


Question #4. What trading-related questions or topics would you like the experts to discuss on future episodes of the weekly Crowd Forecast News show and/or which experts would you like to see on the show who haven’t been guests yet? (The show is off this coming week, but back on December 2nd.)

• brokers fees
• Fundemantal
• auto trading
• Psychology, psychology, psychology
• Selling put options


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Gotta keep sense of humour and stops in place and realize that nobody really knows ANYthing, especially myself.


Both shows are off next week, we have arranged this event for you instead:


Synergy Traders #7 – Black Friday and Cyber Monday Trading Strategies
Join us on Monday starting at 12PM ET. This is your chance to be the first to get the secrets, tips, tricks, and tactics from top trading educators.

Date and Time:
– Monday, November 25th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Lineup for this Episode:
– 12PM ET: John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– 1PM ET: Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– 2PM ET: Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
– 3PM ET: Brian Miller of OptimizedTrading.com
– 4PM ET: Bryan Klindworth of AlphaShark.com

Click here to find out more!


AD: eBook: The Options Answer.

1

Analyze Your Trade Episode #103

AD: eBook: The Options Answer.


Watch here or on YouTube:

Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:

On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.

New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunesPodbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.

Lineup for this Episode:
– Felix Frey of OptionsGeek.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)


AD: eBook: The Options Answer.


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

AYT111919

Crowd Forecast News Episode #246

Watch here or on YouTube (Note, this is an audio-only episode):

Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:


On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.

Lineup for this Episode:
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

You can download this week’s and all past reports here.


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

CFN111819

Crowd Forecast News Report #321

AD: The Market Map: A Simple Roadmap to Anticipate Market Direction


The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport111719.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 18th to 22nd)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 56.0%
Lower: 44.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 12.0%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 67.6%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.5%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 67.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -0.2%

Responses Submitted This Week: 26
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 34.9

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 56% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 46.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 62% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.30% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 56.0% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 52 times in the previous 321 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 56% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.10% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 56% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.8%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 81.8%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


AD: The Market Map: A Simple Roadmap to Anticipate Market Direction


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Good economic news !
• trend is still up and no sign of a correction yet
• still finishing wave 5
• trend
• seasonnal time for higher stock market
• seasonal conditions, holiday shopping
• Law of physics, a body in motion tends to remain in motion. In this case UP. Not too confident that all is well in the economy and I trade with caution unless we build a solid base at these market levels and then blast off. So, the transd is UP until it is NOT!

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• We are ready for a reverion, to men,,way hi 9% above 50dma,,
• Flat to down a lot of volume came into DIS this week profit taking inevitable
• Continued overbought up to and including the monthly charts, rising on declining momentum, pundits are running out of solid credible reasons for a continued rally.
• market to enter a holding pattern to much dumb money sploshing around 4x normal volume on DIS on an upday signals major top in that stock and the rest of the market
• since I’m long, it must be going lower
• The S&P is approaching its upper Bollinger band at about 3126; and it tends to fall back when it hits it.
• Hopium will fade again when people start to realize that China trade rumors are just rumors being foisted on the american public by Trump and his lying co-conspirators. Read China’s word . They will not enter into an agreement without a release of all tariffs.
• Market is losing upside momentum. Earnings reports are coming to an end except for retail.


AD: The Market Map: A Simple Roadmap to Anticipate Market Direction


Question #4. What procedures do you use for trade management? (e.g. position size, stops, scaling in or out, etc.)

• 8% stop loss—
• Stops
• Position sizing is critical and always honor your “hard” stop.
• position sizing and stops
• stops
• position size
• I set position sizes carefully, and exit losing trades more quickly than in earlier years.
• Good solid rules that I have developed over the years.
• trailing stop
• enter consumer discretionary spending companies
• My trade management depends on what type of trade I am in. Options are given a lot of room to work given that they are already very limited risk. Sometimes a stop on a new stock or ETF position as I scale into it and build a position. Some things I follow have a natural cycle and I will never take them off, selling options for income. Unless I see something very bad in the wind and accumulated profits are fast disappearing, my “forever stocks” are a hold until they are not.


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #246
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, November 18th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #103
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 19th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Felix Frey of OptionsGeek.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


AD: The Market Map: A Simple Roadmap to Anticipate Market Direction

1 2 3 66