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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport032419.pdf
Full web version of the report available below the ad.
Smooth Markets Never Made a Skilled Investor
I see a lot of panicked traders and worried investors right now. And with good cause because we’re not convinced that the turbulence in the markets isn’t set to continue for a while.
But there’s one guy we know, Jeff, who looks pretty relaxed right now. You see, Jeff’s investing approach can pinpoint stocks and profit from them no matter whether the market is soaring or nose-diving.
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (March 25th to 29th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 28.9%
Lower: 71.1%
Higher/Lower Difference: -42.1%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 68.6%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 63.6%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -6.9%
Responses Submitted This Week: 41
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 40.7
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 63% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 71.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 59% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.78% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 71.1% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 16 times in the previous 286 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 63% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.19% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 63% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.4%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Technically looks like to recover from friday’s low
• More positive comments in the news.
• end of quarter window dressing by institutions
• Unknown Mueller report is now known
• Correction
• Big impulse down, moderate + pullback.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Pullback due to political/economic concerns
• technical.
• End of month rotation will cause the S & P to slide down.
• The uncertainty and noise around the completion of the Mueller invstigation
• technical analysis shows me a top has occurred
• Market will take a rest.
• below spx 2800 lower
• a reversal
• The Fed, which has lots of data to study, knows that they won’t raise rates this year, because they are confident that the economy is in a slowing phase. Also, the S&P chart looks like a triple top.
• After hitting the high of 2860 on S&P which was a known strong resistance point, the rally appears to have temporarily faded. It broke down through support at 2818, and is close to the next resistance of 2800. If it does not go up from here, we can expect the market to roll over here.
• Downside correction that started last week will continue.
• quiet period for buybacks weak internals support broken window dressing a difficult task
• Fridays drop
• It completed a reversal pattern on friday + fundamental factors like a slowing world economy.
• Engulfing at previous level of resistance.
• possible lower high on weekly chart
• The children will come in for lunch and not like what they are being served.
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Smooth Markets Never Made a Skilled Investor
I see a lot of panicked traders and worried investors right now. And with good cause because we’re not convinced that the turbulence in the markets isn’t set to continue for a while.
But there’s one guy we know, Jeff, who looks pretty relaxed right now. You see, Jeff’s investing approach can pinpoint stocks and profit from them no matter whether the market is soaring or nose-diving.
Question #4. What sort of hedging or portfolio protection strategies do you implement in your trading?
• Using options
• puts
• I sell that’s it
• Securities
• SDS options
• Stops
• Buy shunned winners.
• Buy puts.
• stops
• I used to in the past, but my timing was not correct, and I have lost money. But tomorrow I might buy some inverse SPY etf.
• I sell at mental stopped
• put spreads
• Debit spreads
• Use of multiple protective option strategies
• VXXB weekly calls -been working -atm.
• QQQ puts.
• inverse etfs
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Mueller says no more indictments and the market will head to 2900
• If I knew any thing about markets, I’d be rich, which I ain’t.
• Please discuss how much percentage you expect the pullback to be. Is it safe to say it might be about 5% from the recent high of 2860? Thanks.
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Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #218
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, March 25th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Bennett McDowell of TradersCoach.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
Click here to find out more!
Analyze Your Trade Episode #71
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, March 26th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Andrew Keene of AlphaShark.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)
Click here to find out more!
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Smooth Markets Never Made a Skilled Investor
I see a lot of panicked traders and worried investors right now. And with good cause because we’re not convinced that the turbulence in the markets isn’t set to continue for a while.
But there’s one guy we know, Jeff, who looks pretty relaxed right now. You see, Jeff’s investing approach can pinpoint stocks and profit from them no matter whether the market is soaring or nose-diving.
