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AD: 2 Incredible Traders Debrief Post-Crash Markets (watch here)
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport092120.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?
Higher: 31.3%
Lower: 68.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: -37.5%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 72.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 68.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 75.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -7.0%
Responses Submitted This Week: 16
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 25.1
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 55% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
AD: 2 Incredible Traders Debrief Post-Crash Markets (watch here)
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 53.1%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• New Supreme Court Justice will be added
• Wash out of bears
• why. i’ll let you figure it out.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• technical chart
• Seasonal pressure. Funds taking profits. Possible margin calls from retail.
• The S&P looks like it peaked a few days ago, and is now pointing down and toward its next support at 3200 or lower.
• Correction continues
• Post Sept expiration seasonal negative
• The fear of cov-19 & uncertainty in our economy & our divisive politics is forcing our markets to become more bearish.
• a lot of bad news over the weekend
• COVID still rages and the election chaos still goes on and even more so with the Supreme court nomination fighting.
• market overvalued
AD: 2 Incredible Traders Debrief Post-Crash Markets (watch here)
Question #4. Which market or asset type have you made the most money from trading so far this year?
• US stocks
• Stocks by a large amount
• Equities.
• Companies dealing with heavy metals
• apple & technology sector
• precious metals
• Tech
• lost not made. i follow people
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• If we have a democratic win, the markets will slowly recover with less fear & become more progressive toward economic technology, climate change, education, health care & equality that helps all people.
AD: 2 Incredible Traders Debrief Post-Crash Markets (watch here)
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