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Crowd Forecast News Report #346

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport051020.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (May 4th to 8th)?

Higher: 63.0%
Lower: 37.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 25.9%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 69.4%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 68.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 71.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -3.3%

Responses Submitted This Week: 30
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 31.6

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 56% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 74.2% predicting Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 59% chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.84% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 63.0% predicting Higher with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 70 times in the previous 345 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct 56% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.04% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 56% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 53.1%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 62.7%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Money Flowing in with nowhere else to go.
• People will be going back to work
• Why not? Nothing makes any sense so why shouldn’t it go higher?
• Because I’m short
• party on Garth deal with the reality of detiorating fundamentals
• momentum
• The FED’s manipulation
• Investors are still putting their money into the Fed-will-boost-the-economy game, lifting the S&P toward its next resistance at about 3000. At this time, the market is ignoring reality, which is that the Fed can’t cause the full-economy volume of people to book vacations or dine in restaurants when people are justifiably concerned about contracting the virus.
• governmemt putting money into the system. the spy now with attach the old highs.
• Lockdown to be lifted

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Markets having difficulty breaking Fibs 61.8% retracement from March 23rd bottom, and nearing top of Elliott Wave 5 from same bottom. In addition, there’s divergence from price with declining volume and momentum.
• all signs show red flags!
• Too many states reopening too soon causing a spike in COVID-19 cases
• Unemployment numbers
• Run up last week at end of week, and more bad economic news than good.
• I’m stupid
• The market is ignoring the real world. The Fed has pushed the market up. Is there still any more Fed money to continue the charade? The world will be lucky to be at 80% capacity 6 months from now, but the market says we’ll be at 100%+. Oh, and costs will have risen dramatically so earnings will be slower to recover than sales. Maybe the market will hold together until Q2 earnings arrive. But the Election year cycle is against it.
• it might go lower, because a lot of people are out of work, however it might go higher, for the gov is buying into the market, and they need money to pay for all these people who are now put on welfare, and business loans, which they ran out of money.

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Question #4. What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?

• review my account statements
• charts
• Look to the left.
• Day trading and following financials.
• techinical
• I do not do a great job with this. Would love some ideas. I mostly have ignored the FED at my own peril
• Profits and I need the bank statements
• Returns
• news, real news, not fake new, or news that talk bad about the president.

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Hello Summer.. Very grateful I am for this platform to share ideas and thoughts, thank you!!
• false hope in the market.

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