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Crowd Forecast News Report #321

AD: The Market Map: A Simple Roadmap to Anticipate Market Direction


The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport111719.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 18th to 22nd)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 56.0%
Lower: 44.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 12.0%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 67.6%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.5%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 67.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -0.2%

Responses Submitted This Week: 26
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 34.9

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 56% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 46.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 62% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.30% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 56.0% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 52 times in the previous 321 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 56% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.10% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 56% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.8%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 81.8%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


AD: The Market Map: A Simple Roadmap to Anticipate Market Direction


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Good economic news !
• trend is still up and no sign of a correction yet
• still finishing wave 5
• trend
• seasonnal time for higher stock market
• seasonal conditions, holiday shopping
• Law of physics, a body in motion tends to remain in motion. In this case UP. Not too confident that all is well in the economy and I trade with caution unless we build a solid base at these market levels and then blast off. So, the transd is UP until it is NOT!

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• We are ready for a reverion, to men,,way hi 9% above 50dma,,
• Flat to down a lot of volume came into DIS this week profit taking inevitable
• Continued overbought up to and including the monthly charts, rising on declining momentum, pundits are running out of solid credible reasons for a continued rally.
• market to enter a holding pattern to much dumb money sploshing around 4x normal volume on DIS on an upday signals major top in that stock and the rest of the market
• since I’m long, it must be going lower
• The S&P is approaching its upper Bollinger band at about 3126; and it tends to fall back when it hits it.
• Hopium will fade again when people start to realize that China trade rumors are just rumors being foisted on the american public by Trump and his lying co-conspirators. Read China’s word . They will not enter into an agreement without a release of all tariffs.
• Market is losing upside momentum. Earnings reports are coming to an end except for retail.


AD: The Market Map: A Simple Roadmap to Anticipate Market Direction


Question #4. What procedures do you use for trade management? (e.g. position size, stops, scaling in or out, etc.)

• 8% stop loss—
• Stops
• Position sizing is critical and always honor your “hard” stop.
• position sizing and stops
• stops
• position size
• I set position sizes carefully, and exit losing trades more quickly than in earlier years.
• Good solid rules that I have developed over the years.
• trailing stop
• enter consumer discretionary spending companies
• My trade management depends on what type of trade I am in. Options are given a lot of room to work given that they are already very limited risk. Sometimes a stop on a new stock or ETF position as I scale into it and build a position. Some things I follow have a natural cycle and I will never take them off, selling options for income. Unless I see something very bad in the wind and accumulated profits are fast disappearing, my “forever stocks” are a hold until they are not.


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #246
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, November 18th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #103
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 19th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Felix Frey of OptionsGeek.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


AD: The Market Map: A Simple Roadmap to Anticipate Market Direction

Crowd Forecast News Report #320

AD: 4 Trading Days Every Week Don’t Matter!


The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport111019.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 11th to November 15th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 46.4%
Lower: 53.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -7.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 65.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 64.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 67.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -3.2%

Responses Submitted This Week: 28
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 35.2

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 62% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 71.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 59% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.46% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 53.6% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 21 times in the previous 319 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct 38% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.14% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 62% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


AD: 4 Trading Days Every Week Don’t Matter!


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 65.9%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 64.3%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 67.5%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• trend
• Toppy, Market tippy FEd d0ne l00sening
• Chart and seasonality
• TARIFFS
• Option Expirations Week
• The market is melting up because of FOMO and many companies reporting better than expected earnings and forward guidance. I also think we’ll continue to melt up thru the end of the year with 3300 S&P in sight.
• The trend continues

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• The market may have a resistance
• Reversion to the mean of the trend
• China, Iran, Fed
• momentum is starting to roll over. Earnings reports are slowing down.
• Overbought, overvalued, low volumes, and reduced momentum.
• WE AR 5+% ABOVE 50DMA ==usually an area to be cautious of drop or pullback
• We all know it will only be up as long as trump keeps playing his china story. I still think it must go down and lower than this week
• Because of impeachment hearings
• No reason – that’s why my confidence is only 50%. More specifically – there are SO many fundamental as well as technical reasons – but none of those reasons have stopped the uptrend yet.
• Momentum from last week to be reversed.
• The S&P has reached its top trend line and Bollinger band top. It may move up a bit, but heavy resistance at 3100; so downward it should go.


AD: 4 Trading Days Every Week Don’t Matter!


Question #4. Which trading platforms or brokers do you like the best for executing your trades?

• Tradestation
• Interactive Brokers Pro
• Ninja.
• TD Ameritrade
• I use Fidessa and ADMIS(UK)
• tda,tastyworks
• schwab
• Interactive Brokers
• E-Trade
• Schwab. TD Ameritrade
• TradeStation
• None I want to ✔ Lightspeed
• I do not know
• ThinkorSwim for options – Ninjatrader for futures.
• TD Ameritrade
• I like e*trade
• I’ld like to know


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Useless equity markets totally manipulated with flood of free money that was never printed nor has any value.


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #245
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, November 11th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Sam Bourgi of TradingGods.net
– Jake Wujastyk of TrendSpider.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #102
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 12th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Steven Brooks of StevenBrooks.co
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


AD: 4 Trading Days Every Week Don’t Matter!

1

Crowd Forecast News Report #319

AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport110319.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 4th to November 8th)?

Higher: 71.4%
Lower: 28.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 42.9%

The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 70.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 70.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: -0.5%

Responses Submitted This Week: 22
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 35.3

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 59% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 70.8% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 64% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.15% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 71.4% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 32 times in the previous 318 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 59% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.16% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 59% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.9%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 81.8%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Employment strong
• daily AND weekly Elliott waves – still arriving at targets for wave 5 finish
• momentum
• QE and positive earnings will attract investors.
• new highs
• Friday’s move up looks like it could lead to more of a breakout from the congestion around 3000. Also, The Fed looks like they will pause on lowering interest rates, suggesting that they think that the economy will do better than expected.
• trend
• Gearing up for holiday season

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Market overbought needs a breather


AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.


Question #4. What are the most important mental and emotional characteristics for traders to develop?

• When you find out let me know.
• Manage stressEmployment
• Discipline and mental clarity
• patience
• Disciplined approach.
• Don’t get tied to a losing position, hoping against hope, that the direction will reverse.
• Attention and patience
• Mental toughness with emotions breakdown.


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Donald Trump greatest President since JFK!! Go Donald GO!!


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #244
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, November 4th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Erik Gebhard of Altavest.com
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #101
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 5th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


AD: Don’t risk your capital! Trade with other people’s money.

Crowd Forecast News Episode #243

AD: Cancel your plans Tuesday night, watch this instead.


Watch here or on YouTube (Note, this is an audio-only episode):

Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:


On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.

Lineup for this Episode:
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

You can download this week’s and all past reports here.


AD: Cancel your plans Tuesday night, watch this instead.


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

CFN102819

Crowd Forecast News Report #318

AD: Cancel your plans Tuesday night, watch this instead.


The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport102719.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 28th to November 1st)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 70.8%
Lower: 29.2%
Higher/Lower Difference: 41.7%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 67.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 68.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 65.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: 3.1%

Responses Submitted This Week: 24
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 35.6

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 64% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 55.0% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 58% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.87% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 70.8% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 83 times in the previous 317 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 64% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.30% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 64% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


AD: Cancel your plans Tuesday night, watch this instead.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.7%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 81.8%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Phone
• Better economic news
• breaking out
• Companies beating earnings expectations.
• trend
• Earnings were higher
• timing, seasonality, people are too bearish
• The market rose last week, which was an important week for earnings. So, the odds this coming week are for continuation of the uptrend.
• Momentum, chart pattern
• Trump wont let it sink
• Earnings
• Market has rebounded from every bad news imaginable
• seasonalities
• Market has rebounded from every type of bad news

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• At the top and feel growth in earnings and cap spending will slw


AD: Cancel your plans Tuesday night, watch this instead.


Question #4. What indicator influences your trading the most?

• Right now yield curve
• moving averages
• Stocks above 200 MA.
• Momentum
• RSI
• RSI 14 daily and weekly
• Bollinger bands; MACD
• 5…50…200 EMA
• RSI
• DJIA
• none
• DJIA
• overall there are many red flags


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• FOMO is in play


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #243
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, October 28th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #100
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, October 29th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


AD: Cancel your plans Tuesday night, watch this instead.

Crowd Forecast News Report #317

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport102019.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 21st to 25th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 55.0%
Lower: 45.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 10.0%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 63.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 57.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -13.3%

Responses Submitted This Week: 22
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 35.8

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 58% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 63.0% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 61% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.73% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 55% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 24 times in the previous 316 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 58% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.28% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 58% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.6%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

xxxxxxxxxxxxx

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

Crowd Forecast News Report #316

AD: There Will Be Blood, There Will Be Profits.


The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport101319.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 14th to 18th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 63.0%
Lower: 37.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 25.9%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 67.2%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 68.5%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 65.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 3.5%

Responses Submitted This Week: 27
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 36.0

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 61% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 70.0% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 60% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.88% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 63% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 64 times in the previous 315 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 61% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.12% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 61% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.4%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


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Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Positive China, Inpeachment efforts dwindle
• Earnings, Brexit solution, breach of downtrend.
• Trade deal +ve news
• FED CUT Selloff cycle ended Friday NICE REBOUND
• market currently going up
• The weekly chart shows higher lows, indicating that the trend is still up. The market likes the current US-China trade talk situation — wouldn’t argue with that.
• Us / China agreement
• China trade
• momentum

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Trade, middle east Issues, macro economics
• U.S. and China trade deal did not yield any better things for U.S. China has to feed its people and has to buy agriculture products, only U.S. can satisfy China’s huge population’s needs, no other single country can do that. Besides, nothing is in writing. Before the trade war China was buying from the U.S.
• Price in
• While sentiment suggest higher I think technicals suggest lower


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Question #4. What trading software/platform(s) do you use to execute your trades?

• Tastyworks, TOS
• TCC2000, RBC, I-Trade,
• I use TD Ameritrade and Fidelity. Good news for me this week: both now commission free. TD Ameritrde now charges $0.65 per contract plus a small penny fees.
• Tradestations
• Fidessa
• TD
• E-Trade
• Td ameritrade
• Infinity futures and TOS
• Fidelity, TS & Trading view


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Gold & Silver stabilize & Rise. Modest Gains is stocks


No CFN show this week, join us for these other upcoming events on TimingResearch:


Analyze Your Trade Episode #98
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, October 15th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Synergy Traders #4
For this event 5 amazing trading educators available to teach you about their top trading strategies. We are inviting you to spend the day learning top trading strategies from leading industry experts that will bring you closer to achieving your trading goals.

Date and Time:
– Monday, October 19th, 2019
– 10AM ET (7AM PT)

Lineup for this Episode:
– 10AM: Marina Villatoro of TheTraderChick.com
– 11AM: Mercedes Van Essen of MentalStrategiesForTraders.com
– 12PM: Michael Guess of DayTradeSafe.com
– 1PM: Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– 2PM: Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com

Click here to find out more!


AD: There Will Be Blood, There Will Be Profits.

Crowd Forecast News Report #315

AD: Need more capital to trade? Click for Futures or Forex.


The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport100619.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 7th to 11th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 70.0%
Lower: 30.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 40.0%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 65.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 65.7%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 64.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: 1.3%

Responses Submitted This Week: 29
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 36.2

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 60% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 55.6% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 72% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.73% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 70% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 63 times in the previous 314 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 60% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.10% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 60% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.3%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• The market seems to be trending higher. Economy still good. Optimism about China trade deal.
• Buyers will respond to lower prices from this week. Unless there’s bad political/trade news over the weekend.
• The US jobs report was a good sign and lowering interest rates might factor in a higher S&P500 but not confident…
• because is been that way for last 4 months
• Fed lowers soon puts floor under the market
• seasonality
• summer is over, stocks going higher
• We closed out of the consolidation ranges from last Couple of weeks to the upside. I feel that buyers will come into the market in anticipation of the China USA trade talks that will ultimately fail.
• China deal anticipation
• The S&P has a hammer on the weekly chart, suggesting an upward move.
• Recent bottoming and turnaround in stochastics on 1,3,and 6 mo charts.
• Good news for the week !
• chart formation.
• Positive signs that a resolution to the China Trade war is near
• Good economic news
• It could be big low by Fri but they may still push up for a day or two or keep it still in highs.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• it will be sideways
• S&P still topping out so higher chance of it going lower
• Macro Economics, USA is Good, however other countries EU monetary banking issues, IE., Interest rates. China seems slowing, other countries following suit. USA is strongest with Trump in Power, USA will prosper is these times.


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Question #4. What type(s) of trading do you specialize in or focus on? How did you come to that decision?

• Wide interests at this point. Long-term equity positions, forex, and I’ve just started trading options.
• Options on ETFs, exspectations for economic growth are falling.
• Options
• Ling term & swing
• reversal trades
• options, more defined risk
• Investing, swing and day, Retirement, occasions and salary
• Options
• Futures day trade time frames. Investments long terms as well which I don’t focus on as much as they are investments not trades
• Selling covered calls on good stocks. Based on experience
• Swing trading stocks – works for me as a part-time trader.
• Overbought/oversold conditions. Best chance for trend following.
• SPY
• Stocks. However I do follow Bonds, EFT. tec.. I see commentaries of many people and seems most are in agreement.
• I like options.
• Trading E-mini
• Value
• Futures scalping


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• I would like to learn spreads
• let s wait and see
• Gold has stabilized and will slowly rise, Silver following naturally…
• I’m open to suggestions on how to trade options profitably.
• Switching to commodities from indices gradually as index is riskier whereas commodities are perhaps going to be interesting now on


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #241
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, October 7th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #97
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, October 8th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


AD: Need more capital to trade? Click for Futures or Forex.

Crowd Forecast News Report #314

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport092919.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (September 30th to October 4th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 44.4%
Lower: 55.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -11.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 63.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 61.7%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 65.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -4.0%

Responses Submitted This Week: 27
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 36.3

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 55% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 60.0% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 72% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.73% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 55.6% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 42 times in the previous 313 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct 45% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.35% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 55% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 63.9%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 61.7%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 65.7%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• I think next weeks market will move sideways. A lot of uncertainties in trade and the political picture.
• Low interest rates
• Bounce from this week
• resolution of impeachment
• Just a guess
• Trade deal
• The chart pattern suggests a lower start the week followed by a rebound rally.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• More White House Craziness
• lower before weekly wave 5 continues
• Range bound with weakness to the downside
• Unexpected move from whitehouse but hope this will be a rumor.
• Harry Dent
• China tarrifs
• S&P struggling at this point. Business investments lower; China trade issues going nowhere.
• Trump tweeting some market shaking things in an effort to move the news cycle away from the impeachment inquiry
• Its September. High probability the market corrects.
• Trends


Question #4. What sort of hedging or portfolio protection strategies do you implement in your trading or investing?

• Sell puts when unsure of market direction
• I don’t hedge
• One Triggers Two (OTT) = One Cancels Other (OCO) – at open of the options trade , place orders for both win (at +100% or such) and loss (-50% or such) on the options; ensure losses restricted and winners get closed before retracing
• stop losses
• Selling calls
• sell puts
• with Gold options
• Options: Buy/Sell Puts in-out
• None
• out of money calls and out of money puts
• TC2000
• Options
• Buy puts. Buy inverse etf’s


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• N/A
• Gold Rising


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #240
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, September 30th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #96
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, October 1st, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Lance Ippolito of AlphaShark.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!

Crowd Forecast News Report #313

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport092219.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (September 23rd to 27th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 40.0%
Lower: 60.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -20.0%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 66.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 63.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -6.3%

Responses Submitted This Week: 28
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 36.4

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 72% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 52.2% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 55% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.14% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 60.0% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 25 times in the previous 312 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct 28% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.63% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 72% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.9%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 45.5%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Tate Reeves campaign maybe
• trend
• Earnings
• China trade news. No negative surprises this week as had one this past Friday
• Interest rates trending down

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Stagnant Market, geopolitical tensions. Iran, China, US earnings. Approaching elections not a concern as long as Trump wins.
• US/China tariff trade problems
• Chart pattern, increased geopolitical pressures, possible armed conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran with US backing Saudi Arabia – increased pressure on political situation in Washington DC.
• Post triple witching Friday.
• Friday’s sell off
• us-china trade war iran tensions
• S&P looks like it reversed to downward this past Thurs & Fri. Volatility measure moving up. US-China trade talks more pessimistic.
• Highs proving a barrier
• Fear&Greed index still showing more greed than fear. But look out below when it starts showing fear.


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Question #4. Which trading platform or broker do you like the best for executing your trades?

• think or swim
• TC2000
• Tastyworks
• schwab
• I don’t have 1
• Tradestation
• Interactivebrokers
• Fidessa by ADM
• E-Trade.
• td ameri trade
• TradeStation
• Fidelity
• Fidelity
• TOS platform from Thinkorswim
• Interactive Brokers


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Gold & Silver will rise higher out of the sideways conjestion. Shorts covering with new buyers coming in.


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #239 
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, September 23rd, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Michael Guess of DayTradeSafe.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #95
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, September 24th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


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