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Category Archives for "Crowd Forecast News Reports"

Crowd Forecast News Report #268

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport111118.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 12th to 16th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 51.4%
Lower: 48.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 2.9%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 64.6%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 62.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 66.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -3.7%

Responses Submitted This Week: 37
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 45.2

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 75% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 70.6% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 58% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 2.00% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 51.4% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 12 times in the previous 267 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 75% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.41% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 75% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.7%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Wicker won
• Sazonality rebound with a bottom market situation.
• Earnings and holiday spending
• holidays
• Earnings reports.
• Seasonal …. strong month in November…. bullish overall ….
• Continued battle between bulls and bears, net up move into monthly expiration.
• history
• still buying
• Consumer confidence high Holiday spending will be up Possible trade agreement with China
• 2811 seems to be a good level for next week because of historical relevance of that level

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Current momentum downward will take some time to subside.
• Still in a down trend, below 50 SMA
• Mid-term elections are over, so seasonality factor is gone.
• spy below 277
• The downside correction continues until the public says “just get me out”.
• The S&P hit it’s weekly high on Thursday, then fell on Friday. This high was below the high of early October. This lower high suggests general market weakness. Concern about the Fed raising rates and tariffs is expected to continue.
• Feds next raise Wii send rates over 3%
• tariffs
• at resistance – sell rallies
• Elliot wave pattern
• Technicals turning over, plus a dearth of good news.
• The market was down last Thursday and Friday, Friday was bad.


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Question #4. What do you think are the main reasons why most traders are not successful and consistent? What could the average trader do to improve consistency?

• need a rule set to follow that profits in up and down markets and most don’t have that.
• Protective put
• discipline –put stops in first-patience
• trade less often
• Emotion
• DK
• I am not a successful swing trader as my brain fools me into taking the better looking trades and not the 3/10 ones which usually work out :(
• short term thesis
• Jumping into trades too early (before enough evidence is in) is a common problem.
• Inconsistent practices plus no mechanism to handle small losses as part of a larger successful plan.
• Follow a plan.
• Not having trade plan, rules
• Bad strategy
• Jumping in and out at the wrong time, at too large a position. Traders can do better by paying attention to logic of market moves, e.g., when sellers and buyers exhaust themselves on down and up moves.
• Don’t have a trading plan and if they do they don’t follow it consistently.
• Traders are there worst enemy… by far …. plus too much CNBC
• Lack of discipline. Turn off CNBC/Bloomberg/StockTwits, etc. Trade to your plan.


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Nothing noted


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #203
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, November 12th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com

Click here to find out more!


AYT is off this week but will be back on 11/20!

Analyze Your Trade Episode #56
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 20th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– TBA

Click here to find out more!


Partner Offer:

The Alpha Fibonacci Method works on any instrument, any time frame, and any platform with ultimate accuracy at trend inception and trend reversals.

You’ll see how on this online training.

Crowd Forecast News Report #267

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport110418.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 5th to 9th)?

Higher: 70.6%
Lower: 29.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: 41.2%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 67.2%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 66.5%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -2.5%

Responses Submitted This Week: 34
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 45.3

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 58% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 68.4% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 67% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.51% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 70.6% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have been observed 26 times in the previous 266 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 58% of the time, and with an average S&P500 move of 0.29% Lower for the week (one of those rare conditions were the number of times the S&P500 moved Higher under the selected conditions was greater but the average of all the moves was Lower). Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 58% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.5%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• 1.US and China trade war has positive outlook according to president Trump. 2. The midterm election is getting close to be done and over with. 3. Traders sentiment is positive.
• bull melt up
• Do for a rebound
• 1. Seasonality 2. GOP retains and improves number of seats in both the House and Senate.
• S&P Making a rally attempt from oversold condition
• Pull back done. election elation will take over
• November is an up month
• Bounce up and cooling rhetoric.
• history
• buying
• Best six months of the year historically and buybacks
• There is massive volatility but eventually prices may go back to a minor high.
• Mid term elections usually +ve
• One of the uncertainties will be known…elections over.
• no blue wave
• I entered 50% confidence level higher because I think it will go BOTH higher AND lower. I think it will be all over the map until the end of the year.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Trend reversal dead ahead
• Not enough buyers
• short signals from trend lines and indicators on the daily, weekly and monthly chart.
• Market trend down and short term trend top of pull back trend.
• Dems win house majority; Dow down 900 points
• Th downside correction continues as moving averages are penetrated.
• The S&P may have hit resistance on Friday morning, as then it fell most of the day. The strong jobs reports makes it more likely that the Fed will raise rates in Dec, which is should be a negative for the S&P.
• its between point 4 & point 5 on an Elliot wave; higher close + diminishing volume = no appetite for higher prices.


Partner Offer:

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You’ll see how on this online training.


Question #4. What type(s) of trading do to focus on and why? Have you tried other forms of trading that did not work as well for you?

• Options. Buy & hold didn’t work so well.
• option spreads.
• reverse toward a trend from a pull back and break out reversal of a pull back. sell options in high volatility and buy options in low volatility.
• long term investing, options
• Only focus on Basic Equities, day and swing trading. Sell options.
• Trend following. It flows with my lifestyle.
• day/news and B&H Investing my main successes Swing trading still a hit and miss :(
• Stock trading, usually for 2-5 day periods.
• counterintuitive
• Far out-of-money option selling might work well here with the increased volatility. Just need to make sure the options are FAR out-of-the-money. Like maybe two hundred points or so.
• options – most leverage
• Intraday and swing
• None really
• 1 and 2 worked well 1. Futures only now 2. Formerly options and mutual funds aggressive no loads. 3. Managed futures accounts did not work.
• Options. Short term gains were more predictable
• Very short term. Less than a minute is a good trade
• No
• Day Trading suits my personality. Would like to do some short term swing trading. 1-3 days
• the types of trading that i do are : 1) trend line on weekly and monthly charts. 2) combination of specific indicators – oscillators on daily charts, weekly charts and monthly charts.


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• have faith the market will move.
• look for pull back to close trade after 3 same direction days
• This is the most sensitive timing for markets
• Good luck.
• the trading that i do based on a combination of some specific indicators with specific settings, is extremely accurate in daily, weekly and monthly charts.


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #202
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, November 5th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Sean Kozak of NeuroStreet.com (first time guest!)
– Lee Harris of EmojiTrading.com
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #55
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 6th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net

Click here to find out more!


Partner Offer:

The Alpha Fibonacci Method works on any instrument, any time frame, and any platform with ultimate accuracy at trend inception and trend reversals.

You’ll see how on this online training.

Crowd Forecast News Report #266

Partner Offer: Do you need more capital to trade? Get funded in as little as 15 days, click here.

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport102818.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 29th to November 2nd)?

Higher: 31.6%
Lower: 68.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: -36.8%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 69.7%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 70.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 0.4%

Responses Submitted This Week: 38
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 45.8

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 67% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 56.7% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 64% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 4.15% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 68.4% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 9 times in the previous 265 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 33% of the time, and with an average S&P500 move of 0.19% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 67% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.7%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Market is very oversold and need to rebound.
• good earnings
• Over Sold Bounce / Positive Economic News
• No T.A . Just monkeys throwing darts. And the teeter-totter rhythm since there doesn’t seem to be rhyme but no reason to the market.Not to point fingers, but the mkt might be mimicking the chaotic behaviour of the powers that be ?
• Mid-term Elections
• October ends midweek
• oversold and SC rally brewing
• dead cat bounce
• Markets will front run the elections tax cut continuation trade deals and consumer confidence and Euro GB Italy resolutions

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• It has had 2 dips and i beleive it is over priced.
• The stock market is always going up and down all the time
• Market instability of late predicts a break to the downside soon.
• wave
• Trend is still down & quidance will weigh on future earnings due to tariff concerns & trade war with China ….then gov’t deficits will take the spotlight at some point next year
• We’re in a down trend
• The markets remain in the beginning stages of a larger correction.
• Trump’s Trade War. China will not capitulate like wimpy Canada and Mexico.
• The downside correction continues as moving averages have been violated. Market will continue the downward path until the public says “just get me out”.
• The forces that have trimmed the market this month are still in play. Next support appears to be about 2565, a pivot seen in Nov 2017, Feb & Apr 2018.
• elliott wave prognosis and sentiment
• Unknowns on the world stage are still dominant. Even strong Earnings are not changing the trend for the moment. Stock Prices are soon Ready for the end-year Rally.
• Declining trend increased by quarterly earnings failing to ignite market PLUS mid-term election uncertainty.
• historical drop this time of year
• seems to be selling ahead to make an impact on the election
• MACD, momentum, fear


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Question #4. Have you ever, or do you currently, use any type of auto-trading execution with your trading strategies?

• no
• no
• no
• No & no
• No.
• Have tried auto trading with no success.
• No
• No. Trade news and trend.
• no
• Yes, I use auto trading algorithms written specially for trading my strategies.
• Yes
• yes
• No.
• Yes
• rising interest rates and oil, oil has pulled back, but combination will pull down markets.
• no
• No
• no
• no
• yes
• Yes I do.


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• i’m just getting started
• I would like to know if any auto trades work.
• I only trade options, hardly no stocks, less risk, trade tactics on down, up and sideways,
• please email survey results and list associated comments too, without names of who is saying. …so bullish reasons give, etc thank you
• 80% of the S&P 500 stocks down 10% or more


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #201
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, October 29th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Roy Swanson of SteadyTrader.com
– Damon Pavlatos of FuturePathTrading.com

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, October 30th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com

Click here to find out more!


Partner Offer:

Did you ever think that becoming a professional trader is out of reach? Think again.
Click here to learn how.

top

TopstepTrader has funded more than 1,800 traders just like you with live trading capital. They take all the risk. You keep the first $5,000 in profits and 80% thereafter.

Crowd Forecast News Report #265

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport102118.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 22nd to October 26th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 43.3%
Lower: 56.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -13.3%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 65.7%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 66.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 65.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: 0.9%

Responses Submitted This Week: 32
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 46.3

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 64% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 51.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 54% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.14% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 56.7% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 36 times in the previous 264 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 36% of the time, and with an average S&P500 move of 0.07% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 64% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.5%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Great earnings
• good earnings reports
• Bargain Hunting & Solid Earnings Reports
• history
• at support now
• Best six months of the year starts November

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Sucker Rally failed
• Doesn’t seem to be getting much attention.
• Market sentiment negative.
• rising oil prices and rising interest rates
• Trend appears to be down
• Earnings disappointments and downgrades
• still in October
• The downside correction continues as moving averages are violated.
• Market still appears to be in a downtrend; so favoring continuation. Not highly confident, as positive earnings announcements this coming week could lift market.


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Question #4. What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?

• I don’t really have one. I just go with instinct
• Increases in net worth
• Charts and VectorVest
• Aggregate Percentage yield on my beat stocks
• Risk/reward ratios
• I track every trade & calculate results at end of each month
• market moving my stock picks higher and if the companies continue to grow with increased revenues.
• Document all trades in spreadsheet


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #200
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, October 22nd, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Serge Berger of TheSteadyTrader.com (first time guest!)
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #53
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
-TBA

Click here to find out more!


Partner Offer:


Tuesday, October 23rd at 7:00pm ET: They’re insiders – CEOs, CFOs, board members and other executives with access to key, non-public information about their companies. Information they use to get very rich.

Crowd Forecast News Report #264

Partner Offer: Do you have enough capital to trade? If not, click here.

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport101418.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 15th to October 19th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 51.4%
Lower: 48.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 2.9%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 66.4%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 64.4%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 68.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -3.9%

Responses Submitted This Week: 37
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 46.5

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 54% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 51.4% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 66% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 3.84% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 51.4% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower (this just happens to be the exact opposite of last week). Similar conditions have been observed 26 times in the previous 263 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 54% of the time, and with an average S&P500 move of 0.06% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 54% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Partner Offer: In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.4%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Whether S&P will go higher this week depends on earning reports from NFLX and PG. It depends especially on future guidance indicated by these companies.
• Market has corrected, and is ready to move on up.
• I think things are still leaning Republican and it may stay bullish or go back up some maybe I guess
• weak bounce, bearish flad
• Friday afternoon’s rally off of support gave us a hammer. Continued upside is expected. Next resistance could be at 2885-90, the midpoint of the Bollinger band.
• I believe the market is manipulated to some degree by Wall Street. The some for the silver market (J.P. Morgan, etc.)
• Rebound time.
• Market is extreme oversold.
• Bounce off resistance
• done selling

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• broken trend lines on bigger tech stocks as well as macro events going on short term. Economy stable for earnings reports starting should consolidate markets in month ahead
• The big question after Wed/Thurs drop is 1) is this just a correction, or 2) is this the crash so many were expecting. We’re not going to know the answer to the above until the data is in at the end of next week. I suspect it’s a “correction” and the next crash will come inside the next 1 to 3 years during which there could be several more corrections. So next week I’m expecting the sell off to continue but reach some point of consolidation / stabilization. After that the markets could continue upwards with a bit more volatility than was occuring prior to this week.
• Interest rate rise uncertainty
• The downtrend that started after the Presidential emergency tweet on that Wednesday 10 days ago will continue. It will end when the public says “just get me out”.
• Retest of the recent low
• too much debt economic instability consumer spending wanes stocks will be affected negatively
• October swoon
• Lower highs & lower lows & below 100 day moving average & at 200 day moving average
• Overvalued market
• History shows this as a bad week.
• I really dont know y but that s wut i think it will b
• High volatility and big downdrafts make the markets look risky to the downside right now
• Appears to have entered “a” wave
• Last week drop

No Prediction:

• I gave no answer because the market has been on such a roller coaster ride that I don’t even want to hazard a guess for such a short term.


Partner Offer: In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
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Question #4a. Do you think the drop in the markets this week were the start of a longer downtrend or a minor correction on the way to new highs (i.e. 6 months from now do you think the S&P500 will be higher or lower than today)?


Question #4b. Why?

“Minor correction (S&P500 heading higher)” Respondent Answers:

• October typically has been a volatile month for the stock market. Additionally, there have been pullbacks to some extent prior to earning season. Investing community is a bit more wary prior to this earning season because of potential warnings which companies might issue because of tariffs and the trade war. I am hoping the market can digest any of these warnings and continue its climb up. Especially tech stocks such as Apple, AMZN, & Microsoft.
• Republicans will be victorious in my opinion are better candidates say especially against Baria
• explained in previous comment
• Got a feeling
• nothing changed fundamentally
• In previous instances of these bounces off of support, the market has moved up for a month or more. After that, it gets quite unpredictable.
• Market was overbought to the max. The downtrend will continue and will end when the public says “just get me out”. Then the market can return to new highs.
• Earnings & economy are strong.

“Start of a longer downtrend (S&P500 heading lower)” Respondent Answers:

• too much debt currency will suffer trade war bonds, pensions, banks will suffer less consumer spending and lose confidence
• If trade war with China, inflation will go higher & lower profits which will cut P/E ratios.
• Interest rate increases, and perception the mid-year election results are obvious.
• .atket overvalued for too long and inverters are moving to safe havens
• Over priced stocks
• Bull is too long in the tooth


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• The big CRASH I’m expecting still has 1 to 3 years to occur and I believe it will occur after the offshore money coming into the US markets begins drying up. The US will be the last stop in the search for a safe haven. That’s when what is happening that’s beginning to occur in troubled economies around the world begins finally to occur here. At that point the economic crisis will be worldwide. No more safe havens to flee too.


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #199
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, October 15th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– George Papazov of TRADEPRO Academy (first time guest!)
– Brad Powell of ETFDynamics.com (first time guest!)
– Toni Hansen of ToniHansen.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #52
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, October 16th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net

Click here to find out more!


Partner Offer: In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!

kyle

Crowd Forecast News Report #263

Partner Offer: Wealth365 starts Monday! Top Financial Speakers Share Strategies Online.

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport100718b.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 8th to October 12th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 48.6%
Lower: 51.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: -2.9%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 67.7%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 69.7%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 65.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: 3.9%

Responses Submitted This Week: 35
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 46.8

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 66% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details :Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 62.1% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 52% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.39% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 51.4% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 35 times in the previous 262 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 34% of the time, and with an average S&P500 move of 0.18% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 66% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.2%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Equities still best place
• Market is oversold from last week sell off.
• Kava nomination complete
• Seasonality
• bounce back
• still buying
• good earnings
• based on everything that i see
• hit 50dma and bounced
• Correction is underway but it may find a bottom shortly ending the week slightly higher
• Any excuse to continue this upward blowoff. Latest news is Kavanaugh.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• lying Donald Trump
• Rising interest rates.
• The market reached a peak on Wednesday with the Presidential tweet warning and has gone on the defensive ever since. The moving averages are being tested and broken.
• Interest rates appear to be destined to rise more. This becomes a problem for those in debt, including the US Govt and many companies. Even bank stocks, which theoretically gain with higher interest rates, are looking weak.
• Told ya
• Seasonal likelihood.
• Gut


Partner Offer, the TimingResearch shows are off this week, check out this instead:

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Question #4. What trading-related skills do you want to learn or improve over the next few months? How are you planning on doing this?

• Timing portfolio management
• being to see exactly every 15 minutes what is going to happen
• option spreads.
• follow stop losses
• TIming on exiting positions.
• Gold projections – no plan
• Everything fails if we do not follow some system


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• i do well but i would like to do better


Partner Offer, the TimingResearch shows are off this week, check out this instead:

The TimingResearch shows are off this week, check out this instead:

Join thousands of fellow traders for the online-only Wealth365 Summit October 8-13th where you’ll be exposed to more speakers, new topics and hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of free prizes from top wealth experts.

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Crowd Forecast News Report #262

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport093018.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 1st to October 5th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 62.1%
Lower: 37.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 24.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 63.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 59.7%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.1%
Higher/Lower Difference: -9.4%

Responses Submitted This Week: 31
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 46.8

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 52% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 40.6% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 57% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.27% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 62.1% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have been observed 77 times in the previous 261 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 52% of the time, but with an average S&P500 move of 0.12% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 52% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.4%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• I like Donald
• It’s a bull market!
• Bounce off of daily 20 period EMA & higher low.
• 50 d ma and 20 day ma up, at bottom of upward channel
• Holding the 50% retracement long in the S&P at $2905
• Mid-term elections.
• history.
• still buying
• The S&P was in consolidation the previous week, which provides a good setup for a rise this week. Also, a nice GDP increase and good earnings expectations should help.
• Elliott wave pattern.
• Large volume trades show more selling. Low volume trades still show buying. I don’t know whether “the top” is in yet, but I’m sure not going to buy the dips.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Overbought markets. 3rd qtr ended – sellers should return.
• Tariffs
• Current white administration is bringing too much controversy and distrust
• Due to the Presidents nonsense position size
• Its ending pullback in all my s tocks
• Tarriffs!


Partner Offer:

It looks like a little “fish hook” on the charts…
Whenever Jason Bond spots this weird pattern, he dips his line on the water. Most of the time, he reels in a profit.

jasonbond


Question #4. What procedures do you use for trade management? (e.g. position size, stops, scaling in or out, etc.)

• position size, stops, sometimes scaling
• I try to keep position sizes of relatively the same size.
• Mental stops
• I don’t know
• start small, 8% loss stops, take off profits 35%
• Scaling in.
• Daily loss limit, weekly loss limit, # of stops per day.
• Position size
• Position size, stops, market direction.
• Scaling
• stops
• Proper stops, no scaling, support & resistance, use of trailing stops if trending
• Position sizing used with various strategies. All in all out also used depending on strategy used. Stops are very important and honoring them is critical in maintaining risk management.
• position size
• Algorithmic


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• seasonality is against my answers.
• Is there a better and close too 100% certainty to read the market in the USA??


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #198
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, October 1st, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Tim Racette of EminiMind.com (first time guest!)
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #51
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, October 2nd, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com
– Hima Reddy of HimaReddy.com

Click here to find out more!


Partner Offer:

It looks like a little “fish hook” on the charts…
Whenever Jason Bond spots this weird pattern, he dips his line on the water. Most of the time, he reels in a profit.

jasonbond

Crowd Forecast News Report #260

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport091618.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (September 17th to September 21st)?
(The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 51.4%
Lower: 48.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 2.9%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 65.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 68.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 63.2%
Higher/Lower Difference: 5.1%

Responses Submitted This Week: 35
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 47.6

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 60% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 57.6% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 68% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.82% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 51.4% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 96 times in the previous 259 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 60% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.37% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 60% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.2%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Banking is stable for now maybe according to Ole Miss
• Tariffs & trade are keys to the degree & direction but the market wants to go up even when it sells off a little because of anticipated strong earnings & a strong economy in spite of hurricane aftermath. With monthly option expiration, triple witching, FED announcements, it’s like getting answers to this current chapter relieving some uncertainty. The economy is growing, the market is rising, you don’t want to miss the bus & soon we’ll have an even more divided govt which the market likes..
• Yes
• usa earnings remain robust
• history
• Going with continuation of last week’s move up. The 50-day moving avg has been offering good support.
• Friday was triple witching, with that behind us, trade talks are progressing albeit slowly, no real earnings or major news releases we should start the final climb to the end of the year. The election in November will create more distraction but the big event is not that Republicans lose control but new financially responsible ind. may breathe fresh air into the stagnant halls. Also with Canada charging to legal sells of cannabis and many more states voting to approve, things sb interesting
• more $$$ fowing back into the markets
• Trend continues
• Charts don’t look finished to upside. S&P previous all-time high is a magnet. BUT I’m only 60% confident – because all the fundamentals say it’s already way too high. Long-term the fundamentals eventually matter. Don’t they??

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Market overbought
• tariffs
• Uncertainty caused by Trump’s trade war.
• The S&P is again reaching overbought as it makes a push towards new highs. The week may start higher as new highs are achieved but without substantial reasons for the move it will likely attract major profit taking.
• trade wars
• lower since I’m long
• EW
• Seasonal downturn continues. September will be unforgiving.
• Worst six months historically
• Market topped over summer Oct selloff


Question #4. What are the most important mental and emotional characteristics for traders to develop?

• Follow your own research
• Profit to liquid asset maybe I guess
• stops and the reason for the trade? Do not lose money.
• No need to trade everyday.
• Accept that the market is the boss, is unforgiving and that your intuition is probably wrong. Accept the consequences of every trade and trade small enough that you can deal with the results. Always know why you’re making a trade, have a plan and a backup plan. Remember that a long-term trade is often a short-term trade gone wrong. Get enough education to trade effectively. If hope and prayer are parts of your strategy, stop trading and get a better job.
• patience and perseverence
• Don’t panic
• For me, it’s to take a small loss before it turns into a large loss. And then to move on. Don’t try to make the next trade make up for the previous loss. Instead, just trade your system.
• patience
• Be observant. Act on facts. Charts and news rule .
• learn how to make a decision.
• money managment
• Most importantly, don’t let emotion take hold.


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Make more by trading less.
• All panelists should be on camera.
• show in table form and graphically how predictions compare to actual market performance. THIS IS A MUST!


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #196
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, September 17th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Adrienne Toghraie of TradingOnTarget.com (first time guest!)
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)
– Jody Samuels of FXTradersEdge.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #49
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, September 18th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Oliver Schmalholz of NewsQuantified.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com

Click here to find out more!


Partner Offer:

In 2015, he claimed exactly $838,353 in capital gains. In four years – he turned $15,253 into $2,855,475. Watch Kyle Dennis’ presentation:
Learn the 3-Step Plan I Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 Trading Biotech Stocks!

kyle

Crowd Forecast News Report #259

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport090918.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (September 10th to September 14th)?
(The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 42.4%
Lower: 57.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -15.2%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 61.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 57.1%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 65.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -8.1%

Responses Submitted This Week: 35
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 47.7

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 68% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 4+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 58.3% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 58% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.87% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 57.6% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have been observed 25 times in the previous 258 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 32% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.42% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 68% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.2%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Donald Trump enthusiasm
• The line on the chart says it all. The trend continues higher after a short hiatus. Inflation from jobs data now solidly will influence the equity markets and gold higher.
• up week following a down week
• Recent history.
• People returning from vacation
• momentum

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Ouverbought Market.
• tariffs
• Tariffs are inflationary and are providing a level of uncertainty that is particularly motivating the market to take profits and window dress institutional portfolios for the end of the 3rd qtr although it’s pretty early to do that now. The Fed is going raise interest rates soon and give a press conference that will be a market mover perhaps contributing to the uncertainty. Political and geopolitical hostilities are increasing adding to uncertainty in spite of good economic news otherwise.
• NASDAQ is still jittery and likely to continue down pulling the S&P and eventually the Dow with it.
• There is no reason to create new records in September
• inflation
• TrAde talk/war
• Reality will over take the status quo as the trend remains in the early stages of transitioning from bullish to bearish.
• The market strength is weakening. The September seasonal weakness is getting a grip.
• Since the high on Aug 29, the S&P has been trending down. This trend is likely to continue, especially with the Chinese tariff situation.
• September
• Now the trend is down
• momentum failing support
• It could go anywhere during this volatile season. So I’m simply not going to trade.


Question #4. What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?

• Annual returns compared
• past history averages
• comparison of results to goals
• I keep a journal but it’s not like a diary. More like unexpected surprises that I should be ready for next time. And new possible ideas for what-if scenarios. Because I trade options, there are lots of what-if’s.
• Acct bal.
• bank account
• increase in overall portofolio
• I keep records
• Profit and Loss Statements.
• Look at net worth
• Still the same procedure – evaluating equity over time
• credit balance
• Profit
• Performance
• When I am successful, I am like a cheetah attaching an injured lamb. When I am unsuccessful, I AM the injured lamb.
• Reviewing of and adherence to my risk management rules.


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• The political left is so insecure in their beliefs that they feel the need to shut down free speech and an exchange of other ideas through violence like spoiled 2-year-olds. You don’t often see similar behavior from the right even when they are in the minority and don’t get their way. So who do you think is more likely to take away your freedom? Separately, Nike is misguided and is insulting so I will peacefully buy products from its competitors. I’ll just do that instead!


Join us for this week’s shows:


Crowd Forecast News Episode #195
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, September 10th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
– Fausto Pugliese of CyberTradingUniversity.com
– Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com

Click here to find out more!


AYT is off this week but will be back on September 18th!

Analyze Your Trade Episode #49
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, September 18th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
– Oliver Schmalholz of NewsQuantified.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com

Click here to find out more!


Partner Offer:

It looks like a little “fish hook” on the charts…
Whenever Jason Bond spots this weird pattern, he dips his line on the water. Most of the time, he reels in a profit.

jasonbond

Crowd Forecast News Report #258

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport090318.pdf


Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Tuesday’s open to Friday’s close (September 4th to September 7th)?
(The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 41.7%
Lower: 58.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -16.7%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 64.0%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 61.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 66.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -4.6%

Responses Submitted This Week: 38
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 48.1

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 58% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 4+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 66.7% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 65% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.58% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 58.3% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have been observed 45 times in the previous 257 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 42% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.15% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 58% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.


Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.0%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact


Email Alerts

Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:

By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• It will dip from tues thru thursday and rally by end of day Friday
• guess
• The market doesn’t seem to want to go lower
• New high in Aug, currently just above resistance
• Momentum and seasonality
• vacation is over
• In recent weeks, dips have been bought. Momentum is positive.
• 50% chance

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Labor day signals a sell
• High market could be a resistance line mire sells no than buying maybe I guess
• S&P peaking stchastics >80%
• Market is very ouverbought..
• tariffs
• Higher on the week but lower than Tuesday’s open because the pent up demand after a 3-day weekend should mean that Tues will open up strong especially now that Mexico is on board & Canada is soon to follow. The NFP will be OK but it’s hard to believe that it will be extraordinary. Scary Sept & Oct will retard buying but institutions will be buying back on Tuesday the issues that they sold last week. Still a bullish week but not compared to Tuesday’s open. FAANGs will continue to carry the load.
• Continued uncertainty associated with trade issues with Canada, China, Europe, Etc.
• Don’t fight the Fed
• Overbought
• Testing Support
• I think the market is peaking at new resistance and is due for a rest and some consolidation.
• It is virtually impossible to predict week to week where the S&P ends up each week. What I’m really saying with my routine “lower” and “50%” response isn’t so much what will happen tby this time next wee.. What I am saying is this market is going to turn down and that is the next important event that will inevitably occur and reset the levels at more realistic levels. I will not really bother with being right week to week as a result. I know I’ll get it right in the end.
• The market is overbought and due for a downside correction. September is usually a weak month for stock prices.
• I have certain technical; indicators that I follow and they say we are heading south – but I’m first to say this is a likelihood of happening – that’s all.
• Instability
• Current high and negativity of the Trade negotiations.
• I don’t know where the heck the market is going and therefore rated my confidence at only 50%. Everybody knows it’s “overpriced” whatever that means. Yet most seem to believe it will go up to at least 3000. And everybody has trailing stops or buys protective puts or whatever. So it seems everybody is protected even if there’s a 20% correction. But it seems nothing can stop this uptrend – unless it’s something really drastic and unexpected – maybe. I dunno.


Question #4. What trading-related questions or topics would you like the experts to discuss on future episodes of the weekly Crowd Forecast News show? (The show is off this coming week, but back on September 10th.)

• Entry/exit strategies
• All guests should indicate how long they have been professional advisers and what their annual results have been for the period that they have been advising. They also should indicate what makes them superior.
• Isolation of some markets
• options pricing, instead of buying stock, using options to take bull/bear position.
• Competing with algorithmic firms when trading.
• Profit
• Position Size / Money Management
• seasonality and momentum
• fundamental analysis


Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• A lot of people like to say that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results and if that’s true, we have have a lot of people in this country promoting socialism who must therefore be insane.
• Will the economy be better because of a new policy o behalf of TYrump?
• Have all panelists on camera.


Join us for this week’s shows:


CFN is off this week but will be back on September 10th! AYT is still on (details below).

Crowd Forecast News Episode #195
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, September 10th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
– Fausto Pugliese of CyberTradingUniversity.com
– Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com

Click here to find out more!


Analyze Your Trade Episode #48
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, September 4th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com

Click here to find out more!


Partner Offer:

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