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Crowd Forecast News Week #387

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 61.5%
Lower: 38.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: 23.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 61.2%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 61.9%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 60.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 1.9%

Responses Submitted This Week: 14

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Last week I forecast higher with any near term retracement to be short-lived and followed by at least an attempt to make new highs. It was a short week, and even a short retracement might impact Friday’s finish. The Thursday (2/18) major indices’ lows marked a short term low line in the sand. Friday’s range in all indices was higher, and I expect this to continue higher and a test of the previous indices highs to be made shortly.
• Slight gain in the market
• I think we are at the bottom of a channel and believe support has held and we will raise to the higher end of a channel this week. But I do believe a 10-15% correction is possible over the next month or two.
• Just guessing. Lost last week because of power outage.
• Higher I hope. No idea really, power was off for 6 days. Just starting to get caught up on what’s going on.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• a retest of 3840 supp/res
• dollar weak
• Vaccine is not approved for everyone yet free

Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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Crowd Forecast News Week #386

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Tuesday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 36.4%
Lower: 63.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -27.3%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 65.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 68.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 63.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 5.2%

Responses Submitted This Week: 11

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Follow the trend until it bends or reverses to down
• All Sector Indexes are trading above their 10 day moving averages except Utilities. Three of the four major market indices made new highs Friday. Market internals are iffy, but the slope of the 10 day moving average of the NYSE advancing issues is positive. I expect any near term retracement may be short-lived and followed by at least an attempt to make new highs.
• i think worldwide everyone is looking to place their money into some kind of equity that will gain in value plus make a nice gain and for many that is US shares ( for us here in Aus, many see real estate as that equity ) so i see the S&P 500 to continue upwards over a continued long period, on a shorter time period of a week this may not always eventuate
• Trend

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• According to the Fibonacci projection, it should turn at 1.27, so at $400.62. Now we put that in relation with the Fib-EXT in the Cypher pattern, 8 hour chart, so 2.0 AD gives the value of $400.50. Thus, I have a cluster here. The RSI(14) is in overbought territory at almost 70. Add to this the realization that the move from Feb 1 low to Feb 3 high is then identical to the move from Feb 3 low to the $400 value. (Measured move)
• Corona virus
• According to the technical analysis, it seems clear that the price will go up. But I feel that profits will be collected.
• Too many overvalued stocks.
• consolidation

Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• I want to have a solid and consistent trade plan that work.s
• However, this is a short week, and even a short retracement could impact next Friday’s finish.

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Crowd Forecast News Week #385

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 55.6%
Lower: 44.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: 11.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 62.2%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 56.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -14.0%

Responses Submitted This Week: 9

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• 2nd February veek is traditionally strong. Bigger correction I expect in third February week
• it’s not over yet.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• All US exchanges, including SPY, are back in sync and extremely overbought above their respective trading ranges, so looking for some pullbacks this week towards $377’ish for the SPY, and then next rebound higher.

Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Markets continue to be deliriously drunk on Fed support, and recently buoyed with prospects of another US Government stimulus infusion of cash. I continue to watch for catalysts and/or temporary disruptions for dips, like the recent lowly freebie titans challenging the lofty hedge gods…social media and FOMO yet again supplying slaughtered greedy pigs for the SuperBowl BBQs.

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Crowd Forecast News Week #384

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 41.7%
Lower: 58.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -16.7%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 64.6%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 58.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -11.3%

Responses Submitted This Week: 12

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• none

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Price on day chart is under 50 SMA.
• The fallout from last week continues. Hopefully the indexes will fall to allow sensible investors to get back in !
• a fibonacci pullback number
• fibonacci pullback to 3620 before resuming upwrards
• Technical Analysis

Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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Crowd Forecast News Week #383

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 70.0%
Lower: 30.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 40.0%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 67.0%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.1%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 66.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: 0.5%

Responses Submitted This Week: 10

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Earnings
• Good earnings will be reported this week. COVID-19 cases are down in many states.
• The US markets ended the week split with the SPY mid-stream heading towards its trading range lower boundary, the QQQ posting a Doji at the top of its range, and the DIA posting back-to-back Dojis at the bottom of its trading range. Given the narrow trading ranges for these three exchanges since November’s pullback, I expect the SPY to bounce off its lower trading boundary of $379’ish by mid-week and rebound towards an upper target of $390’ish. I also expect the DIA to stall around its lower level until the SPY bounces to the upside, as well as the QQQ may not reach its lower boundary, but instead join the others higher. As always, it’s good to have a view, but trade’em as you see’em, not how you (or me) think’em, and that includes with a proven trading-investing plan!

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Needs to consolidate.
• On shaky ground. Gut feeling

Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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Crowd Forecast News Week #382

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 45.5%
Lower: 54.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -9.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 73.6%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 70.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 76.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -6.7%

Responses Submitted This Week: 11

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• globex
• Since late November, the markets have been pushing higher than the levels before February’s Covid Crash! However, signs of exhaustion in these over-valued markets are now appearing with last week’s decline, as I predicted, plus declines in broader measures of Advance/Declines, Accumulation/Distribution, and % Stocks Above 40-day Averages crossing below % Stocks Above 200-day Averages….even the Dark Pool activity is decreasing! A bigger market pullback/correction is looming and looking for a catalyst, and maybe this week’s US President Inauguration might oblige!?! Assuming no disruptions, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ are all nearing their respective lower bands in narrow trading ranges, and ready for a bounce higher this coming week. The SPY’s lower bounce point is $374.50’ish with topping target around $382’ish. Similarly, the DIA’s bounce higher target is $313’ish, and the QQQ is $318’ish.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• The divergence of the CCI indicator is obvious. The price should fall to the level of the high trend line (about 3600).
• Technical analysis
• Lower volume through Wednesday, then further drop Friday on heavier volume. (based on social/political news).
• 4 day week nothing big happening

Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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Crowd Forecast News Week #381

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 53.3%
Lower: 46.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: 6.7%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 72.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 71.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 73.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -2.3%

Responses Submitted This Week: 15

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• momentum
• Technical analysis
• More stimulus will come. Good earnings.
• Trend is still up on big stocks. Quiet weekend for bad news. Buy two days until Trump decision
• Anti-covid-19 vaccination is starting worldwide
• Like Last week follow-through sp500
• Trend

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• SPY rebounded off lower trading band and now well above upper band, so looking for a move lower during the week and possible rebound off 371.50’ish.
• Pullback/chop prior to Biden transition
• Due to Trumps behavior
• Tesla stock price will drop about 70 points < + and – > 10 . Way overvalued. < jet pump effect >
• Thanks to the purchase euphoria, the price broke the significantly high trend line. I am therefore waiting for an early correction to 3620.

Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Earnings this week tell story FRIDAY CCL could push entertainment downward
• SPY PUT option 19Jan2021

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Crowd Forecast News Week #380

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 71.4%
Lower: 28.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 42.9%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 70.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 73.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 63.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: 10.0%

Responses Submitted This Week: 21

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• still in uptrend. no breakdown yet – can change anytime due to News related events regarding the election in Georgia and electors’ certification anytime !
• New year optimism, historical tendency, Elliott Wave on longer term.
• MACD IS about to cross and RSI (65) IS IN POSITIVE area.
• biden presidency
• RSI strong Box breakout
• a strange new wall of worry the MEDIA thinks too many are bullish!! and DANGER LIES AHEAD
• Start anti-covid-19 vaccination positive effect.
• pro bono publico Thanks
• Day RSI is long, H4 RSI is starting lower, but the H1 RSI is set for a rubberband trade long this week, pulling the H4 RSI long again. We are at an inflection point and the first 2 months of stock trading normally is bullish.
• Covid-19 vaccination start make investors feelings more positive.
• Georgia state senate run off will be over, no uncertainty.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Multiple high testing is over
• Elliot indicates choppy small pullback
• The SPY hit its upper target in an up-sloping and narrowing $5 trading channel, and will likely meander downwards towards a lower channel target of $369, before its next rebound higher. A similar story for the DIA, but in an up-sloping narrow channel of $3 with lower target of $302.50. The QQQ’s, on the otherhand, is already mid-way within its upward sloping narrow channel range of $316 to $310.

Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• repubs win in georgia race
• There is NO DANGER as long as the media is worried
• Mathematically transparency and simplification due to giving solution via the Green Function Thanks
• New quarter and fund managers need to get back into the game. There is lots of money out there. The cryptos have been on fire to show you how much money there really is out there.
• Optimism abounds with recently approved vaccines circulating, the US Fed covertly supporting the markets, but alas the nasty C-19 & variants continue to wreak a savage toll worldwide on humans and economies. Some say this is the longest-lasting thing to come out of China in almost a centruy!?! Take care, be safe, and enjoy…from a distance with a mask!

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Crowd Forecast News Week #379

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 61.5%
Lower: 38.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: 23.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 71.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 73.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 68.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 5.8%

Responses Submitted This Week: 13

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Christmas rally?
• EOY Seasonality
• reapeat preformance
• New Year rally on stock market will push S&P 500 index to up direction movement.
• Year end trading
• The SPY continues to trade in a narrowing upward sloping channel of $5’ish width, bounced off the lower bottom on Dec.22, and now meandering towards a top target of $372’ish before likely rebounding to the lower side. In addition, both the DIA and QQQ are performing similarly in narrow upward sloping channels with DIA top target of $303.5’ish and QQQ at $313.50’ish. The SPY typically posts positive returns in the last week of December, but all markets continue to be overbought and surviving on Fed life support.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Elliot wave indicates a near term small pullback
• The price does not 4.week higher high
• End of year slow trading volume

Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Happy New Year 2021 to every person on the earth!
• The passing of a US Stimulus package should sustain the markets’ artificial fix into the New Year!?! However, watch out for January seasonal weaknesses with exception of technologies typically posting modest gains.

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Crowd Forecast News Week #378

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 68.4%
Lower: 31.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 36.8%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 69.7%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 69.6%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -0.4%

Responses Submitted This Week: 19

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• TINA
• FED injection
• Vaccines being delivered and stimulus will be passed
• Coming off FED, now another vaccine, Christmas rally, and thinking stimulus passes before Christmas.
• basedon volitility index
• every pullback is answered with a long move, the daily RSI is still long
• Vaccination against C-19 will start soon & Tesla will be part of S&P 500 index.
• Long term trend
• Christmas Rally

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• I’m net long
• o/due for correction
• elliot wave and fibs
• The high price at this time will probably provoke the pre-Christmas collection of profits.
• Evening star candle yesterday and a down day today for SPY. Jupiter Saturn conjunction on Monday. So Monday could be a big down day.

Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• A short time pullback before heading higher
• Merry X-Mas & happy coming New Year 2021 to all!

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