Crowd Forecast News Week #385

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 55.6%
Lower: 44.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: 11.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 62.2%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 56.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -14.0%

Responses Submitted This Week: 9

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• 2nd February veek is traditionally strong. Bigger correction I expect in third February week
• it’s not over yet.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• All US exchanges, including SPY, are back in sync and extremely overbought above their respective trading ranges, so looking for some pullbacks this week towards $377’ish for the SPY, and then next rebound higher.

Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Markets continue to be deliriously drunk on Fed support, and recently buoyed with prospects of another US Government stimulus infusion of cash. I continue to watch for catalysts and/or temporary disruptions for dips, like the recent lowly freebie titans challenging the lofty hedge gods…social media and FOMO yet again supplying slaughtered greedy pigs for the SuperBowl BBQs.

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