Crowd Forecast News Week #386

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Tuesday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 36.4%
Lower: 63.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -27.3%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 65.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 68.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 63.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 5.2%

Responses Submitted This Week: 11

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Follow the trend until it bends or reverses to down
• All Sector Indexes are trading above their 10 day moving averages except Utilities. Three of the four major market indices made new highs Friday. Market internals are iffy, but the slope of the 10 day moving average of the NYSE advancing issues is positive. I expect any near term retracement may be short-lived and followed by at least an attempt to make new highs.
• i think worldwide everyone is looking to place their money into some kind of equity that will gain in value plus make a nice gain and for many that is US shares ( for us here in Aus, many see real estate as that equity ) so i see the S&P 500 to continue upwards over a continued long period, on a shorter time period of a week this may not always eventuate
• Trend

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• According to the Fibonacci projection, it should turn at 1.27, so at $400.62. Now we put that in relation with the Fib-EXT in the Cypher pattern, 8 hour chart, so 2.0 AD gives the value of $400.50. Thus, I have a cluster here. The RSI(14) is in overbought territory at almost 70. Add to this the realization that the move from Feb 1 low to Feb 3 high is then identical to the move from Feb 3 low to the $400 value. (Measured move)
• Corona virus
• According to the technical analysis, it seems clear that the price will go up. But I feel that profits will be collected.
• Too many overvalued stocks.
• consolidation

Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• I want to have a solid and consistent trade plan that work.s
• However, this is a short week, and even a short retracement could impact next Friday’s finish.

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