Crowd Forecast News Week #388

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 53.8%
Lower: 46.2%
Higher/Lower Difference: 7.7%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 69.2%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.1%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 71.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -4.5%

Responses Submitted This Week: 13

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• From Monday’s ISM Man. PMI report to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls I expect to see undecisive behavior. A reaction is expected. The ”candy” of bonds will play significant role. Interesting week, interesting month.
• 1 is higher 2 is 100% lower Joe Biden, no national energy, street people, jobless in North Dakota, Biden spending $86,000,000 for masks that should coat approximately $30,000,000 even if they are as good as the hospitals, Harris’ and Biden’s personal paybacks to foreign interests. Oh, and Gore is back!
• Bounce from last week

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Price is under 50 SMA on day chart. The price will reach at least the long-term trend line at a price of around 3650.
• expected move and fibonacci, expect it ot touch on 3700
• Fear of rising interest rates Fear new COVID variants will slow recovery

Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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