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Crowd Forecast News Week #389

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 55.6%
Lower: 44.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: 11.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 63.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 60.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 7.0%

Responses Submitted This Week: 9

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• $1.9T rescue plan passed in senate and will give the economy a boost. J&J vaccine has been shipped to some states. With three vaccines are available Americans will be vaccinated much faster. States are starting to open up. But Covid-19 B117 is spreading fast. People still die every day. Just lost a good friend recently.
• Based on trends, I see the market moving higher this week but dip a it when President Biden signs the COVID Relief before moving upward again after the stimulus money actually begins to arrive and be spent. I am relatively sure that the majority of spending from this will be in consumer style purchases such as TVs, other high tech electronics and other luxury items while very little of it will be used for Rent, Car Payments or Groceries.
• New lows did not expand in fact new highs were 215 to93 new lows. A little better than average volume and we were short term oversold, especially in the Nasdaq. Also a very big good candle on Friday we should follow thru for a few days maybe the week. Then we will see if they challenge the lows or just keep going north. I think we will challenge and even go to new highs in most if not all the averages. After that will be the question. The next downturn will be more painful. Good luck

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Could go either way, depending on whether or not the Fed does anything…in my humble opinion
• Rates will rise
• Market is was oversold.

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Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• You’re doing great! A lot of your materials are very helpful. Thanks.

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