Crowd Forecast News Week #392

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 75.0%
Lower: 25.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 50.0%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 72.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 76.7%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 60.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 16.7%

Responses Submitted This Week: 8

NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Seasonality and short week.
• Good news from Friday
• End of month.
• Resuming uptrend.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Technically and for momentum reasons I was original bullish. But after the Monday’s ”smoke” about the margin calls on a hedge fund , I change my vote to bearish, waiting to see what’s going on.
• The market (SPX) is expected to top out in the 4000 region and roll over by this Friday.

Question #4. Related to trading or investing what do you want to learn more about this year?

• Sell covered calls
• How fear is spreading on markets. Please don’t laugh!!!

Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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