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Crowd Forecast News Report #348

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport052520.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Tuesday’s open to Friday’s close (May 26th to 29th)?

Higher: 52.2%
Lower: 47.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: 4.3%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 72.2%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 74.6%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 5.0%

Responses Submitted This Week: 24
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 31.1

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 57% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 61.5% predicting Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 57% chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.43% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 52.2% predicting Higher with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 30 times in the previous 347 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 57% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.51% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 57% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.8%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 36.4%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Why not, American unemployment may reach over 30%, consumer spending super low, Fed printing money, so why wouldn’t the market go higher? Either way, were gonna be alright!!
• FED loosening Don’t fight the FED
• More states opening
• Current trend still up, but depending on certain resistance levels, we could go up, then down – also if “the idiot” ratchets up the fight with China…etc.
• S&P weekly chart points up and MACD Histogram turned positive.
• The S&P reached a new May high this past week; and is holding up well near that level. This suggests that the S&P will probably reach higher, maybe to 3060 before it turns down.
• Everything is starting to open up again

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• I’m expecting some sort of bad COVID news soon
• We are range bound now so been up last week and down now.
• I think is a resistant level is reaching around 3000 s&p it will bound back lower at some point. Will see,,,,,,,,
• Earnings season over, reality kicks in.
• gdp’s announcment.
• FOMC Kaplan is talking of remedies economivally maybe i think i guess some maybe

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Question #4. On May 19-21 TimingResearch and TradeOutLoud hosted 3 days of presentations with each day covering a different topic; STOCKS/OPTIONS on Tuesday, FOREX on Wednesday, FUTURES on Thursday. What other specific financial-related topics would you like to see covered in an all-day series of lectures like this? (btw The CFN show is off this coming week for the market holiday but back on June 1st)

• Talk about mechanical systems that work 90% of the time, is there such a system for stocks?
• FUTURES Options on Futures
• Market inside info. Like, who’s doing most of the pre & post market buying? Why do options have such a hard time going up, versus how EASY they can and do go down? Just this past week, a couple of my Netflix positions that don’t expire until June 19 & May 29th respectively, went down substantially (20%) with only a $1.61 move lower in the stock price. At the time that was a small fraction of 1%, since it was trading at $445 or so Why are earnings numbers all over the place? I’ve seen various “consensus” numbers on the same security, so obviously it’s not always a consensus. Further, after earnings report, I can look at Yahoo finance or TD Ameritrade and find one article saying the company beat earnings or rev, and another saying the opposite. What gives? And WHO decides that, in some cases, no matter how good the numbers (earnings, revenues, and outlook), the stock price is going down, even with a low PE stock, even without a recent run up in price, etc. I would like to know WHO is manipulating the market. I can guess, and I can surely guess why, but I’d like details. Unusual option activity – WHO are the players making some of these huge bets? Hedge funds? Billionaires? The JP Morgan’s of the world? Foreign players? It would be nice to know “what is really going on” in regards to all of these scenarios and more.
• I was looking forward to FUTURES, but disappointed. Jack gave a very good presentation, but won’t be able to use. I would like to see more FUTURES presentation tailored to small investors and teaching how to trade micros, more hands on type.
• profits using stop loss sell orders

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Thank you for this platform, this is a great area to exchange ideas and thoughts, so thank you again! Mr. Donald Trump is the Best President since JFK!! Heaven and Earth support Mr. Trump 😇. Thank you Mr. President for the light you bring to the planet!! God Bless America and God Bless Mr. Trump!!

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