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Crowd Forecast News Report #357

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport072720.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (July 27th-31st)?

Higher: 55.6%
Lower: 44.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: 11.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 68.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 64.5%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 74.4%
Higher/Lower Difference: -9.9%

Responses Submitted This Week: 18
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 27.8

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 53% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 71.4% predicting Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 55% chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.27% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 55.6% predicting Higher but with a greater average confidence from those who are predicting Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 45 times in the previous 356 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 53% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.05% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 53% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.6%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 36.4%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• COT positive more buys than sells
• Earnings reports China and it’s bad politics won’t stop American businesses
• Positive earnings outlook
• Positive bias, expectations of continued injects of monetary and fiscal stimulus, retail participation.
• Buing opportunities and new virus medicals
• The trend is still up

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• By last veek candles, maybe to 3000 USD price.
• The relentless growth of COVID cases and deaths, China issues, bad poll numbers for Trump, market overbought all contribute.
• Rally needs a rest
• The chart looks similar to what it looked like in Feb (3rd week), when it was starting to turn down into a sizable drop.
• A. Market is totally overbought, especially tech B. Bad news continues – Civil unrest, China conflict, continued pandemic
• USA & china trade conflict , Covid-19 and breaking below 16 of july low (3198) and next 28 june low ( 2994) further downward move on it is way , re daily chart.

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Question #4. What trading software/platform(s) do you use to execute your trades?

• Schwab StreetSmart Edge
• MT4 platform , i prefer simple trading platform as i am a software dump)
• E-Trade
• TOS
• IB, Fidessa
• Trade station.
• Think or Swim
• Fidelity & Infinity
• mt4

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Viva standard & poor 500

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