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Crowd Forecast News Report #367

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport100420.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 46.7%
Lower: 53.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -6.7%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 69.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 65.7%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 72.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -6.8%

Responses Submitted This Week: 17
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 24.6

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 63% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 53.0%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Without a vaccine and before the election this market has nothing on which to base a major move in either direction
• up into election
• my work says the SPX is going higher on Monday
• It’s a toss up. Depends a lot on the health of Trump

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• With the POTUS in the hospital, uncertainty has heightened on top of the election outcome. I’m scared too!
• Price on the S&P500 daily chart closed below the 50 SMA. Price at Resistance on weekly chart. Volatility high. Market indecisive. (4 weekly dojis). Market jittery due to Geopolitical conditions. President Trump in the hospital due to testing positive for the Corona Virus. Market does not like uncertainty.
• Momentum is slipping downward and interest in buying is waning, influenced by the large effect of covid on our economy.
• The trend has changed to down and it looks like the bounce is over. Trump and covid can only bring uncertainty.

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Question #4. What topics related to trading or investing do you most want to learn more about?

• futures trading
• I can make money every single trade I take.
• OPTION credit and debit Spreads rules
• Always trying to learn more

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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