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Crowd Forecast News Week #379

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 61.5%
Lower: 38.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: 23.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 71.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 73.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 68.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 5.8%

Responses Submitted This Week: 13

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Christmas rally?
• EOY Seasonality
• reapeat preformance
• New Year rally on stock market will push S&P 500 index to up direction movement.
• Year end trading
• The SPY continues to trade in a narrowing upward sloping channel of $5’ish width, bounced off the lower bottom on Dec.22, and now meandering towards a top target of $372’ish before likely rebounding to the lower side. In addition, both the DIA and QQQ are performing similarly in narrow upward sloping channels with DIA top target of $303.5’ish and QQQ at $313.50’ish. The SPY typically posts positive returns in the last week of December, but all markets continue to be overbought and surviving on Fed life support.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Elliot wave indicates a near term small pullback
• The price does not 4.week higher high
• End of year slow trading volume

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Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Happy New Year 2021 to every person on the earth!
• The passing of a US Stimulus package should sustain the markets’ artificial fix into the New Year!?! However, watch out for January seasonal weaknesses with exception of technologies typically posting modest gains.

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