Weekly Report #187 – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 56% Chance Lower

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers.

Click here to download the report: TRReport042317.pdf

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 56% Chance Lower

This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 3+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 56% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended up 0.69% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is slightly Higher (greater than 15% difference) with a higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 25 times in the previous 186 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 44% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of  down 0.69% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 56% Chance Down for this coming week.

You can download any past report here.

TimingResearch.com Web Show – Episode #135

Date and Time:
– Monday, April 24th, 2017
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Description:
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Guests:
– Glenn Thompson of PacificTradingAcademy.com
– Kurt Capra of T3Live.com
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com

Moderator:
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com

Click here to register to watch the show live and get the archive!