Crowd Forecast News Report #269

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport111818.pdf

Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (November 19th to 23rd)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 58.5%
Lower: 41.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: 17.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 62.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 65.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 57.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: 8.0%

Responses Submitted This Week: 42
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 45.2

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 64% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 51.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 75% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.36% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 58.5% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 25 times in the previous 268 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 64% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.33% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 64% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.5%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Gaps in technical charts of Dow, S&P and Nasdaq were filled on last Thursday. On economic fundamentals, US market should resume uptrend. Correction flushed out the froths. Market is very healthy now.
• Watching the chart and intuition
• The market is ripe for a rebound
• Sazonality
• Holidays
• Gut
• seasonal tendencies
• Thanksgiving week is usually an up week. The market held okay on Thurs & Fri, so some short-term upside is plausible.
• Best six months historically
• support
• higher low[week 11/2 compare to May ,April weeks] • holiday seasonality
• pull back in an uptrend after the recent sell off low
• seasonality
• We need some sort of double top before the real bear market hits us.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• the COD are never right .
• I think we have passed a support level which is now resistance
• A trend has started.
• most traders off for the holiday week
• The downside correction will continue until the public says “just let me out”. Retail earnings and expectations should be a drag on the market.
• sellers in control
• Market seems range bound. Interest rate concerns.
• Market upswing runs out
• momentum weak

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Question #4. Which trading platform or broker do you like the best for executing your trades?

• thinkorswim
• Fidelity and TOS
• Trade Station
• Tradestation
• Using Charles Schwab now. Not entirely satisfied.
• Tradestation, Interactive brokers
• Tasty trade
• Interactive Brokers
• E-Trade
• ninja
• Sogo
• Ally.
• Fidessa my broker is ADM(UK)
• Tradestation
• TradeStation
• AMP – Ninja
• AMP and Sierra Charts
• ninja trader

Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• I like that third party indications created for Think or Swim are better than when created for Tradestation

Join us for this week’s shows:

Crowd Forecast News Episode #204
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, November 19th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– John Hoagland of TopstepTrader.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!

Analyze Your Trade Episode #56
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, November 20th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net