Crowd Forecast News Report #310
Tuesday: Join first-time guest Harry Boxer on AYT #92!
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport090219.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Tuesday’s open to Friday’s close (September 3rd to 6th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 48.5%
Lower: 51.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -3.0%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 62.2%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 66.8%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 64.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 2.2%
Responses Submitted This Week: 36
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 36.7
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 62% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 60.5% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 62% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 2.08% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 51.5% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 39 times in the previous 309 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct only 38% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.02% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 62% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Tuesday: Join first-time guest Harry Boxer on AYT #92!
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.8%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• I answered higher because we are still in a bull move. The trend will continue til it is over. My confidence is, however, declining for I am thinking this bull is getting old and tired.
• gold, copper, transportation, XLF, FANGS, FXI, and more. 4 months and all hell will break loose
• Chart readings
• respite from trade war dialogue
• bounce
• higher lows
• Market still being pumped up
• A big sell may create a low but ultimately higher than last week
• Mkt is range bound with a move higher a probability. Trump must by now have realised his tariff tweets only damage the mkts.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Seasonality and inversion yield curve.
• We’re not done yet
• trade war
• downward flag pattern
• s/p-below the 50ma above 200ma-sideways -trend
• Trump’s tweets about trade war
• The market is overbought again at the top of the trading range. There needs to be some back and filling.
• The market is near the top of its August box range. There’s nothing I can think of to propel the market above that box at this time.
• The minute charts are very OB…
• Fear & Greed Index still showing extreme fear so investors less likely to take risks.
Tuesday: Join first-time guest Harry Boxer on AYT #92!
Question #4. What trading-related questions or topics would you like the experts to discuss on future episodes of the weekly Crowd Forecast News show and/or which experts would you like to see on the show who haven’t been guests yet? (The show is off this coming week the market holiday, but back on September 9th.)
• What favourite tools do you use to help confirm a change in trend? How many price bars in the opposite direction do you look for til you decide the trend may be changing?
• Next market decline
• What is the best indicator for pickig tops and bottoms
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• none
Join us for this week’s shows:
Analyze Your Trade Episode #92
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, September 3rd, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
– Harry Boxer of TheTechTrader.com (first time guest!)
Crowd Forecast News Episode #237
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, September 9th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– TBA
Tuesday: Join first-time guest Harry Boxer on AYT #92!