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Week 108 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator Prediction: 63% Lower

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and everyone’s comments on attending live events.

NEW! TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator Prediction: 63% Lower
Last week’s overall sentiment was incorrect as the S&P500 gained 0.87% for the week, however the first Crowd Forecast Indicator Prediction of 58% Higher was correct. This week the overall sentiment is strongly bullish (difference is greater than 10%) with higher average confidence on the bearish side (difference greater than 5%). Similar conditions have occurred 8 times previously since this project started, resulting in a correct prediction for the overall sentiment only 37% of the time and an average change for these weeks of a drop of 1.06%. This is the first time these conditions have occurred in 9 weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is estimating a 63% chance that the S&P500 will go down this coming week.

Click here to download TRReport101815.pdf

You can download all past reports here.

Each week several top trading experts discuss the above report report and give their thoughts about current market conditions. Fill out the survey each week, then watch the show to compare your opinions with the experts!

Date and Time:
– Monday , October 19, 2015
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Guests:
– Roy Swanson of SteadyTrader.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com
– Ed Carlson of SeattleTechnicalAdvisors.com
– Jonathan Rose of ActiveDayTrader.com

Host:
– Matthew Buckley of TopGunOptions.com

Click here to register to watch the show live and get the archive!

Click Here to Leave a Comment Below 2 comments
Mike - October 19, 2015

Hi, folks–Thanks for the interesting stats and info you provide weekly; I enjoy the survey when I’m able to participate.

Quick question. Your email of the above report stated, “the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is estimating a 63% chance that the S&P500 will go *up* this coming week,”but on this blog page it says “…will go *down* this coming week.” [Asterisks mine on both.]

Which is correct? Based on the preceding stats I think you meant to predict “down.”

Thanks for the clarification.

Reply
timingr - October 19, 2015

The “63% Lower” is correct so “down” is the right one, there was a typo in some of the emails that went out. Sorry for the confusion!

Reply

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