Week 114 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 62% Chance Higher
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and everyone’s comments are about their experience with trading options.
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator: 62% Chance Higher
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was “Higher,” however the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 57% change lower, the S&P500 ended up 0.03% higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is “Higher,” and the number of people who selected higher is more than 10% great than those selecting lower, and different from last week there is a higher average confidence on the bullish side. Similar conditions have been observed 29 times since the start of this project with the majority sentiment being correct 62% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of 0.41% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting that the majority sentiment is probably CORRECT and that there’s a 62% chance that the S&P500 will go UP this coming week.
Click here to download TRReport112915.pdf
You can download all past reports here.
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Date and Time:
– Monday , November 29th, 2015
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– Corey Rosenbloom of AfraidToTrade.com
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– Jonathan Rose of ActiveDayTrader.com
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