Week 115 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 55% Chance Lower
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and everyone’s comments are about what type of trading is easiest to be profitable.
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator: 55% Chance Lower
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was “Higher,” and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 62% change Higher, the S&P500 ended up 0.04% higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is “Higher,” and the number of people who selected higher is more than 10% great than those selecting lower, and there is a higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 22 times since the start of this project with the majority sentiment being incorrect 55% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of -0.59% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting that the majority sentiment is probably INCORRECT and that there’s a 55% chance that the S&P500 will go DOWN this coming week.
Click here to download TRReport120615.pdf
You can download all past reports here.
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This week: The return of Dave Landry as moderator! Each week several top trading experts discuss the above report report and give their thoughts about current market conditions. Fill out the survey each week, then watch the show to compare your opinions with the experts!
Date and Time:
– Monday , December 7th, 2015
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
Moderator:
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com
Click here to register to watch the show live and get the archive!