Week 132 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 57% Chance Higher

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and find out when everyone thinks the Fed will next raise interest rates.

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 57% Chance Higher
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 67% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended down 1.71% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is Higher (with a more than 20% difference) and with a higher average confidence on the bullish side. Similar conditions have been observed 23 times in the 132 weeks since the start of this project with the majority sentiment being correct only 43% of the time but with an average S&P500 move for the week of 0.23% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 57% chance of the S&P500 moving higher this week.

Click here to download TRReport040316.pdf

You can download all past reports here.

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Each week several top trading experts discuss the above report report and give their thoughts about current market conditions. Fill out the survey each week, then watch the show to compare your opinions with the experts!

Date and Time:
– Monday, April 4th, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Guests:
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Lance Ippolito of AlphaShark.com
– Sam Bourgi of TradingGods.net
– Sang Lucci of SangLucci.com

Moderator:
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com

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