Crowd Forecast News Report #234

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers.

Click here to download the report: TRReport031818.pdf

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 57% Chance Higher

This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 4+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was 72.0% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 54% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 1.38% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 63.2% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 30 times in the previous 233 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 57% of the time, with an average S&P500 move for the week of 0.26% Higher during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 57% Chance Lower for this coming week.