Crowd Forecast News Report #261
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport092318.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (September 24th to September 28th)?
(The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher/Lower Difference: -18.8%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 62.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 61.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 64.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -2.8%
Responses Submitted This Week: 34
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 47.1
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 57% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 51.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 60% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.89% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 59.4% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have been observed 47 times in the previous 260 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 43% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.14% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 57% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.2%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Trump enthusiasm
• Bull Market., Climbing the wall of worry!
• Pre-Mid Term Election Sentiments
• Recent history.
• I really think the administration is going to do everything within their power to keep an overall positive market till mid-term elections.
• Very volatile week. Low and then high. End of next week may slide down.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Tariffs War
• After making new all time highs the markets are set up for profit taking to finish the quarter.
• Trade discussion breakdown with China Very poor breadth as markets have been heading up Small caps leading down
• the Fed raises interest rates
• The market seemed to have a different tone on Friday and I think that will continue, at least early in the week
• Technical exhaustion ahead of both Fed meeting (rate hike) and end of quarter (lock in profits).
• The S&P has been in a rising channel since early April. It’s close to the channel top, and may decide to revisit 2900 before moving higher again.
• Rise over 3percent 10 t bill
• excess sentiment, bad breadth
Question #4. Which indicator influences your trading the most?
• White candlestick are still there on the S&P 500 occasionally maybe a few intraday
• Moving averages
• VIX New high / New Lows
• Bollinger band, with assistance from volume, MACD
• Fibonacci ratios, Stochastic, and Elliott Wave
• Elliott Wave
• Past history.
• Stock price increases with much higher volume than normal.
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• This is a great service! Thank you for providing it.
• The tech has been weak during September. Should we expect it to recover and strengthen in October?
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #197
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, September 24th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com (moderator)
– Lee Harris of EmojiTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Roy Swanson of SteadyTrader.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #50
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, September 25th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com (moderator)
– Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com