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- Archive: September, 2019
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Crowd Forecast News Episode #240
Watch here or on YouTube (Note, this is an audio-only episode):
Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:
On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
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CFN093019
Crowd Forecast News Report #314
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport092919.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (September 30th to October 4th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 44.4%
Lower: 55.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -11.1%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 63.9%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 61.7%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 65.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -4.0%
Responses Submitted This Week: 27
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 36.3
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 55% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 60.0% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 72% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.73% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 55.6% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 42 times in the previous 313 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct 45% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.35% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 55% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 63.9%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 61.7%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 65.7%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• I think next weeks market will move sideways. A lot of uncertainties in trade and the political picture.
• Low interest rates
• Bounce from this week
• resolution of impeachment
• Just a guess
• Trade deal
• The chart pattern suggests a lower start the week followed by a rebound rally.
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• More White House Craziness
• lower before weekly wave 5 continues
• Range bound with weakness to the downside
• Unexpected move from whitehouse but hope this will be a rumor.
• Harry Dent
• China tarrifs
• S&P struggling at this point. Business investments lower; China trade issues going nowhere.
• Trump tweeting some market shaking things in an effort to move the news cycle away from the impeachment inquiry
• Its September. High probability the market corrects.
• Trends
Question #4. What sort of hedging or portfolio protection strategies do you implement in your trading or investing?
• Sell puts when unsure of market direction
• I don’t hedge
• One Triggers Two (OTT) = One Cancels Other (OCO) – at open of the options trade , place orders for both win (at +100% or such) and loss (-50% or such) on the options; ensure losses restricted and winners get closed before retracing
• stop losses
• Selling calls
• sell puts
• with Gold options
• Options: Buy/Sell Puts in-out
• None
• out of money calls and out of money puts
• TC2000
• Options
• Buy puts. Buy inverse etf’s
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• N/A
• Gold Rising
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #240
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, September 30th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #96
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, October 1st, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Lance Ippolito of AlphaShark.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #95
AD: [eBook] “Monthly Income Blueprint”
Watch here or on YouTube:
Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:
On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline (links open to YouTube):
0:00 – Introductions.
3:00 – ULTA
6:00 – ADBE
9:00 – CSCO
12:00 – CMG
16:00 – AMD
21:00 – FIS
23:00 – MU
27:00 – BIDU
30:00 – AMGN / PFE / BMY / MRK
38:00 – RIG
42:00 – Gold and Silver Stocks
48:00 – AAPL
51:00 – AMZN
54:00 – HD
55:00 – SPY
58:00 – MCD
59:00 – MSFT
1:00:00 – NVDA
1:01:00 – Closing statements.
AD: [eBook] “Monthly Income Blueprint”
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Crowd Forecast News Episode #239
AD: [eBook] “Monthly Income Blueprint”
Watch here or on YouTube (Note, this is an audio-only episode):
Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:
On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Michael Guess of DayTradeSafe.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
AD: [eBook] “Monthly Income Blueprint”
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CFN092319
Crowd Forecast News Report #313
AD: [eBook] “Monthly Income Blueprint”
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport092219.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (September 23rd to 27th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 40.0%
Lower: 60.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -20.0%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 66.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 63.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 69.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: -6.3%
Responses Submitted This Week: 28
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 36.4
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 72% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 52.2% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 55% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.14% Lower for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 60.0% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 25 times in the previous 312 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct 28% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.63% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 72% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
AD: [eBook] “Monthly Income Blueprint”
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.9%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 45.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• Tate Reeves campaign maybe
• trend
• Earnings
• China trade news. No negative surprises this week as had one this past Friday
• Interest rates trending down
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Stagnant Market, geopolitical tensions. Iran, China, US earnings. Approaching elections not a concern as long as Trump wins.
• US/China tariff trade problems
• Chart pattern, increased geopolitical pressures, possible armed conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran with US backing Saudi Arabia – increased pressure on political situation in Washington DC.
• Post triple witching Friday.
• Friday’s sell off
• us-china trade war iran tensions
• S&P looks like it reversed to downward this past Thurs & Fri. Volatility measure moving up. US-China trade talks more pessimistic.
• Highs proving a barrier
• Fear&Greed index still showing more greed than fear. But look out below when it starts showing fear.
AD: [eBook] “Monthly Income Blueprint”
Question #4. Which trading platform or broker do you like the best for executing your trades?
• think or swim
• TC2000
• Tastyworks
• schwab
• I don’t have 1
• Tradestation
• Interactivebrokers
• Fidessa by ADM
• E-Trade.
• td ameri trade
• TradeStation
• Fidelity
• Fidelity
• TOS platform from Thinkorswim
• Interactive Brokers
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Gold & Silver will rise higher out of the sideways conjestion. Shorts covering with new buyers coming in.
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #239
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, September 23rd, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Michael Guess of DayTradeSafe.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #95
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, September 24th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Mike Pisani of AlphaShark.com & SmartOptionTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
AD: [eBook] “Monthly Income Blueprint“
Synergy Traders #3: Pro Traders Have the Mic
[AD] PDF: 10 Strategies for SuccessThis event was created by TradeOutLoud.com and TimingResearch.com and these presentations were recorded on Saturday, September 21st, 2019.
Synergy Traders #3.1: Trading Only What We Know To Be True with Rob Smith of T3Live.com, recorded at 10AM ET:
Watch the video here or on YouTube:
Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:
Synergy Traders #3.2: The Power And Simplicity Of Back Trading with Jerremy Newsome of RealLifeTrading.com, recorded at 11AM ET:
Watch the video here or on YouTube:
Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:
[AD] PDF: 10 Strategies for Success
Synergy Traders #3.3: Generate $500/Day With A Small Account with Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com, recorded at 12PM ET:
Watch the video here or on YouTube:
Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:
Synergy Traders #3.4: Trading The Death Star with E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com, recorded at 1PM ET:
Watch the video here or on YouTube:
Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:
Synergy Traders #3.5: OptionProfessor Market Update with Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com, recorded at 2PM ET:
Watch the video here or on YouTube:
Listen to the audio-only version here or on your favorite podcast network:
[AD] PDF: 10 Strategies for Success
Analyze Your Trade Episode #94
Watch here or on YouTube:
Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:
On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Felix Frey of OptionsGeek.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline:
0:00 – Introductions.
8:00 – BAC
14:00 – FB
17:00 – LK
19:00– COST
25:00 – SHOP
27:00 – THC
32:00 – BA
37:00 – Individual trade ideas.
1:00:00 – Closing statements.
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
AYT091719
Crowd Forecast News Episode #238
Watch here or on YouTube (Note, this is an audio-only episode):
Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:
On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the most recent Crowd Forecast News report.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
You can download this week’s and all past reports here.
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch. Enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
CFN091619
Crowd Forecast News Report #312
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport091519.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (September 16th to 20th)?
Higher: 47.8%
Lower: 52.2%
Higher/Lower Difference: -4.3%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Responses Submitted This Week: 25
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 36.5
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 55% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 70.6% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 60% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.63% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 52.2% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 22 times in the previous 311 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Lower) being correct 45% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.10% Lower for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 55% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.8%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 45.5%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• trend
• Bounce
• FED lowering interest rate
• wave 5 still finishing
• recently the S & P broke out of compression
• Momentum
• Market ready for a blow off when rates rise, Setup continues until rates rise blow off coming soon
• sideways move at highs before breaking to new highs
• momentum Fed anticipation internals
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Resistance area maybe more selling than buying
• travel too far too fast
• Chart top
• Oil issues middle east and other macroeconomic factors in Europe.
• The S&P 50-day MA is flattening, and the S&P is skirting near the top Bollinger band, which makes a short-time pop less likely. Also, dissent on the Fed may keep the FOMC statement from being dovish.
• Thursday high
• Profit booking may come in the next week
Partner Offer:
Question #4. What methods or techniques do you use to overcome the emotional aspects of trading?
• Have a fixed plan for long term investing
• daily chart
• 20 day. 50 day ma
• I STAY in my Comfort Zone
• sit and watch all my right analisys go to waste
• Oversold/overbought conditions
• back tested strategies and rules
• I am not all that successful at it but try to follow a plan
• Scotch on the Rocks!
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• i think i will like this page it is like having a trading buddy
• Gold stalls and begins to move higher
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #238
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, September 16, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Norman Hallett of TheDisciplinedTrader.com
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #94
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, September 17th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Felix Frey of OptionsGeek.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
Synergy Traders #3
For this event 5 amazing trading educators available to teach you about their top trading strategies. We are inviting you to spend the day learning top trading strategies from leading industry experts that will bring you closer to achieving your trading goals.
Date and Time:
– Saturday, September 21st, 2019
– 10AM ET (7AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– 10AM ET: Rob Smith of T3Live.com (first time guest!)
– 11AM ET: Jerremy Newsome of RealLifeTrading.com
– 12PM ET: Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
– 1PM ET: Ryan Mallory of SharePlanner.com (first time guest!)
– 2PM ET: TBA
1
Analyze Your Trade Episode #93
AD: How to Trade the Bobble Pattern (eBook)
Watch here or on YouTube:
Listen to the audio-only version here or your favorite podcast network:
On this episode you can listen to the following guests, along with David J. Kosmider, the creator of TimingResearch.com, discuss the symbol list for this week’s Analyze Your Trade episode.
New! Listen to this episode as a podcast through iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, Spotify, and more.
Lineup for this Episode:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)
Episode Timeline (links open on YouTube):
0:00 – Introductions.
4:00 – CHD
10:00 – NVDA
14:00 – LULU
15:00 – AMD
25:00 – AAPL
27:00 – V
31:00 – BIIB
34:00 – SPGI
37:00 – UNP
40:00 – Individual trade ideas.
52:00 – AMZN & BABA
57:00 – WYNN
58:00 – Closing statements.
Guest Special Offers:
From Larry: How to Trade Volatility Breakouts – Trading Tools & Option Strategies Used
From Jim: OptionProfessor Weekly Market Update with Jim Kenney
AD: How to Trade the Bobble Pattern (eBook)
Email Alerts
Make sure you don’t miss all the future reports, show reminders, and bonus offers from TimingResearch, enter your email here:
By signing up you agree to receive newsletter and alert emails. You can unsubscribe at any time. Privacy Policies
AYT091019