Crowd Forecast News Report #302
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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport070719.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (July 8th to 12th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 59.0%
Lower: 41.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 17.9%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 68.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 66.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 71.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -5.3%
Responses Submitted This Week: 43
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 37.5
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 57% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 74.1% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 60% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 0.64% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 59.0% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Lower. Similar conditions have occurred 14 times in the previous 301 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 57% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.21% Lower (rare instance where it more frequently moves Higher but the average of all moves is Lower) for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 57% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Lower this coming week.
Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.
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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.0%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 58.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• fed cutting rates
• Trump is popular
• The general market usually goes up after july 4
• new highs
• low volume + markets higher on no bad news
• Market melt up on FOMO crowd
• A tweet will move the Mkt higher- it s part of the 2020 election. POTUS feels the economy is his biggest ” bag of tricks.”
• accommodative Fed
• Optimistic view of the Fed cutting interest rates.
• wave 4 continues
• The market held on strong last week. Fed funds rate futures project at least 2 upcoming rate cuts this year. With this, momentum likely to carry market higher.
• Earnings reports
• Just a bullish environment prevailing.
• new highs and trend still up
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• The profit taking from the holiday run up, coupled with growing fears from overseas.
• Earnings soft
• the price is on the top trend line of megafon
• Chart
• 3,000 mark
• Historically worst six months
• No fed cut this x
• Wave 1 and 2 are set in place. If the one hour RSI can not recover long again, this will be the start of a continuation lower.
• VIX re-entered lower Bollinger band IWM, KRE, XRT not confirming new highs
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Question #4. What indicator influences your trading the most?
• Chart paiierns
• seasonality
• MACD
• 3xSt-RCI
• Interest rates
• — volatility — technical trending — tweets –macro /global ecnomy –fomc -Powell speaks Jul 11
• rsi
• MA, CCI
• MAs
• i dont uae them i use fundamental news most llike bankruptcy
• Interest rates
• Futures
• keltner channel
• Stock prices, although I do like to look at the RSI occasionally.
• Price
• The NYSE tick
• RSIOMA Multi-time Frame.
• Sentiment indicators. I go here for a quick look: https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
• DMI
• Support/Resistance levels; Channels; Bollinger bands.
• News
• Fib
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Comment on ” volume ” “O.I. ( open interest “) ” price ” as variables when trading options.
• i want my profits
• Learn a system and trust it.
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Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #230
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, July 8th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Erik Gebhard of Altavest.com (first time guest!)
– Jake Bernstein of Trade-Futures.com
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com (moderator)
Analyze Your Trade Episode #85
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, July 9th, 2019
– 4PM ET (1PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com
– Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com (moderator)
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