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Crowd Forecast News Report #366

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport092020.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 57.1%
Lower: 42.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 42.9%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 66.1%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 66.9%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 65.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 1.9%

Responses Submitted This Week: 14
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 24.8

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 63% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 52.9%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• End of quarter, folio managers have to fill their books.
• Dead cat bounce coming
• corona medicin is on its way.
• We recently had a pullback that may have ended late last week. I voted higher w/a low confidence level because I believe we are at a point where you must see a move take off before you can trade it. No room for guesswork these days.
• New month new quarter
• The market moved up on Friday, after bouncing off the lower Bollinger band. There’s room for more upside; and decent payroll numbers this coming Friday could help the market more.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Big mutual funds are closing their books for the year
• 2nd wave of Covid concerns election nervousness unemployment numbers and lack of gov’t progress on stimulus
• It went up after 1400 on Friday and started the day with a drop, history possible will repeat itself.. i.e drop on Monday
• Politics
• market overvalued

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Question #4. What procedures do you use for trade management?

• Set stops on the core stocks I trade over & over
• stops
• chart reviews, overbought/oversold stocks/indexes, spreadsheet earnings calculations
• 1. macro statistics 2. big picture technicals. 3. Find stop loss close to entry. 4. trailing stoploss to volatility. 5 volume
• read and analyse charts, listen to professionals.
• Puts
• I have a set of rules in place that are truly burned into my brain matter. I place two types of option selling trades on a regular basis and my rules are so ingrained that it now mechanical for me. When to place the trade, when to adjust etc, almost on autopilot.

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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