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Crowd Forecast News Week #376

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport120620.pdf

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 64.7%
Lower: 35.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: 29.4%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 68.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 68.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 70.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: -1.8%

Responses Submitted This Week: 18

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 64% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 6+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Just closed at record highs, trend continues
• QE
• Lot of positive news regarding COVID-19 vaccine & so markets will go up.
• wave 5 continues
• Momentum
• Market anticipating a new leg up
• Trend
• Daily HH,HL Weekly HH,HL triangle break up
• cycle turn end of december

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• SPY has been trading in a tight 1-month regression channel of about $7 and is nearing its top of $368.50 from the Nov.30 pivot low, so with Friday close at $369.85 a pullback is imminent. Interventions by the US Fed and recent speculation of another US stimulus package have kept the markets buoyed beyond pandemic reality levels.
• like tesla all are over valued
• Technical analysis
• Market is over bought

Other Respondent Answers:

• I really do not care, I trade the SPX/USD derivative and make money whether it goes up or down every day.

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Question #4. What do you hope you learn more about related to trading or investing to prepare for 2021?

• Democrat spending pland
• Mechanical automated systems
• Futures, options and micro options
• Options
• Low volatile stock picks
• Time Price & momentum
• Trade’em as you see’em with your best trading plan and indicators, as prognostications are too unreliable!
• wait until market settles down

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Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• With high probability Forex market will be volatile next week.
• What childish undemocratic antics is the daffy Donald doing/considering that could disrupt the markets?

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