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Crowd Forecast News Week #380

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 71.4%
Lower: 28.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: 42.9%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 70.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 73.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 63.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: 10.0%

Responses Submitted This Week: 21

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• still in uptrend. no breakdown yet – can change anytime due to News related events regarding the election in Georgia and electors’ certification anytime !
• New year optimism, historical tendency, Elliott Wave on longer term.
• MACD IS about to cross and RSI (65) IS IN POSITIVE area.
• biden presidency
• RSI strong Box breakout
• a strange new wall of worry the MEDIA thinks too many are bullish!! and DANGER LIES AHEAD
• Start anti-covid-19 vaccination positive effect.
• pro bono publico Thanks
• Day RSI is long, H4 RSI is starting lower, but the H1 RSI is set for a rubberband trade long this week, pulling the H4 RSI long again. We are at an inflection point and the first 2 months of stock trading normally is bullish.
• Covid-19 vaccination start make investors feelings more positive.
• Georgia state senate run off will be over, no uncertainty.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Multiple high testing is over
• Elliot indicates choppy small pullback
• The SPY hit its upper target in an up-sloping and narrowing $5 trading channel, and will likely meander downwards towards a lower channel target of $369, before its next rebound higher. A similar story for the DIA, but in an up-sloping narrow channel of $3 with lower target of $302.50. The QQQ’s, on the otherhand, is already mid-way within its upward sloping narrow channel range of $316 to $310.

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Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• repubs win in georgia race
• There is NO DANGER as long as the media is worried
• Mathematically transparency and simplification due to giving solution via the Green Function Thanks
• New quarter and fund managers need to get back into the game. There is lots of money out there. The cryptos have been on fire to show you how much money there really is out there.
• Optimism abounds with recently approved vaccines circulating, the US Fed covertly supporting the markets, but alas the nasty C-19 & variants continue to wreak a savage toll worldwide on humans and economies. Some say this is the longest-lasting thing to come out of China in almost a centruy!?! Take care, be safe, and enjoy…from a distance with a mask!

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