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Crowd Forecast News Week #381

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 53.3%
Lower: 46.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: 6.7%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 72.3%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 71.3%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 73.6%
Higher/Lower Difference: -2.3%

Responses Submitted This Week: 15

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• momentum
• Technical analysis
• More stimulus will come. Good earnings.
• Trend is still up on big stocks. Quiet weekend for bad news. Buy two days until Trump decision
• Anti-covid-19 vaccination is starting worldwide
• Like Last week follow-through sp500
• Trend

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• SPY rebounded off lower trading band and now well above upper band, so looking for a move lower during the week and possible rebound off 371.50’ish.
• Pullback/chop prior to Biden transition
• Due to Trumps behavior
• Tesla stock price will drop about 70 points < + and – > 10 . Way overvalued. < jet pump effect >
• Thanks to the purchase euphoria, the price broke the significantly high trend line. I am therefore waiting for an early correction to 3620.

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Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• Earnings this week tell story FRIDAY CCL could push entertainment downward
• SPY PUT option 19Jan2021

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