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Crowd Forecast News Week #382

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 45.5%
Lower: 54.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: -9.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 73.6%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 70.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 76.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -6.7%

Responses Submitted This Week: 11

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• globex
• Since late November, the markets have been pushing higher than the levels before February’s Covid Crash! However, signs of exhaustion in these over-valued markets are now appearing with last week’s decline, as I predicted, plus declines in broader measures of Advance/Declines, Accumulation/Distribution, and % Stocks Above 40-day Averages crossing below % Stocks Above 200-day Averages….even the Dark Pool activity is decreasing! A bigger market pullback/correction is looming and looking for a catalyst, and maybe this week’s US President Inauguration might oblige!?! Assuming no disruptions, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ are all nearing their respective lower bands in narrow trading ranges, and ready for a bounce higher this coming week. The SPY’s lower bounce point is $374.50’ish with topping target around $382’ish. Similarly, the DIA’s bounce higher target is $313’ish, and the QQQ is $318’ish.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• The divergence of the CCI indicator is obvious. The price should fall to the level of the high trend line (about 3600).
• Technical analysis
• Lower volume through Wednesday, then further drop Friday on heavier volume. (based on social/political news).
• 4 day week nothing big happening

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Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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