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Crowd Forecast News Week #383

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 70.0%
Lower: 30.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 40.0%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 67.0%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.1%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 66.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: 0.5%

Responses Submitted This Week: 10

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Earnings
• Good earnings will be reported this week. COVID-19 cases are down in many states.
• The US markets ended the week split with the SPY mid-stream heading towards its trading range lower boundary, the QQQ posting a Doji at the top of its range, and the DIA posting back-to-back Dojis at the bottom of its trading range. Given the narrow trading ranges for these three exchanges since November’s pullback, I expect the SPY to bounce off its lower trading boundary of $379’ish by mid-week and rebound towards an upper target of $390’ish. I also expect the DIA to stall around its lower level until the SPY bounces to the upside, as well as the QQQ may not reach its lower boundary, but instead join the others higher. As always, it’s good to have a view, but trade’em as you see’em, not how you (or me) think’em, and that includes with a proven trading-investing plan!

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Needs to consolidate.
• On shaky ground. Gut feeling

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Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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