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Crowd Forecast News Week #387

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Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close?

Higher: 61.5%
Lower: 38.5%
Higher/Lower Difference: 23.1%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 61.2%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 61.9%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 60.0%
Higher/Lower Difference: 1.9%

Responses Submitted This Week: 14

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Last week I forecast higher with any near term retracement to be short-lived and followed by at least an attempt to make new highs. It was a short week, and even a short retracement might impact Friday’s finish. The Thursday (2/18) major indices’ lows marked a short term low line in the sand. Friday’s range in all indices was higher, and I expect this to continue higher and a test of the previous indices highs to be made shortly.
• Slight gain in the market
• I think we are at the bottom of a channel and believe support has held and we will raise to the higher end of a channel this week. But I do believe a 10-15% correction is possible over the next month or two.
• Just guessing. Lost last week because of power outage.
• Higher I hope. No idea really, power was off for 6 days. Just starting to get caught up on what’s going on.

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• a retest of 3840 supp/res
• dollar weak
• Vaccine is not approved for everyone yet free

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Question #4. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

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