Weekly Report #174 – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 54% Chance Higher
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers.
Click here to download the report: TRReport012217.pdf
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 54% Chance Higher
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 3+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was strongly Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 54% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended up 0.10% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is slightly Higher (less than 15% difference) with a higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 24 times in the previous 173 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 54% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of up 0.06% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 54% Chance Higher for this coming week.
You can download any past report here.
TimingResearch.com Web Show – Episode #122
Date and Time:
– Monday, January 23rd, 2017
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Description:
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Guests:
– Vince Vora of TradingWins.com
– Michael Filighera of LogicalSignals.com
– Gary Dean of SentimentTiming.com
– Steve Lentz of OptionVue.com
Moderator:
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com
Click here to register to watch the show live and get the archive!