Weekly Report #164 – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 55% Chance Lower
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers.
Click here to download the report: TRReport111316.pdf
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 55% Chance Lower
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 3+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was slightly Lower, but the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 63% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended up 3.04% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is strongly Higher (greater than 10% difference) with a higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 29 times in the previous 163 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 45% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of down 0.53% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 55% Chance Lower for this coming week.
You can download all past reports here.
TimingResearch.com Web Show – Episode #112
Date and Time:
– Monday, November 14th, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Description:
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Guests:
– Jody Samuel of FXTradersEdge.com
– Roy Swanson of SteadyTrader.com
– Andrew Keene of AlphaShark.com
– Steve Lentz of OptionVue.com
Moderator:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
Click here to register to watch the show live and get the archive!