Crowd Forecast News Report #290

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The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport041419.pdf

Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (April 15th to 19th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 63.9%
Lower: 36.1%
Higher/Lower Difference: 27.8%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 65.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.0%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 63.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 3.1%

Responses Submitted This Week: 38
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 40.2

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 59% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 61.1% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 57% Chance Lower; the S&P500 closed 1.55% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 63.9% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have occurred 58 times in the previous 289 weeks, with the majority sentiment (Higher) being correct 59% of the time and with an average S&P500 move of 0.07% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 59% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):
TimingResearch.com/data.

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Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.6%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 56.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 45.5%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• st trend
• Easter holiday week
• The trend is still our friend
• To the highest price from early October is a bit. The trend is convincingly LONG.
• Better than expected job growth.
• I recently added to my SDS long and SPY put hedges, so the market should skyrocket!
• bulls are in control
• Still best six months of the year and earnings should be ok
• More good bank earnings should help this week. Expecting the market to grind higher.
• Because earnings estimates have been reduced drastically, most companies will handily best the estimates, thus driving the S&P another leg higher.
• trend is up
• Trend plus Financials earnings

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• The China agreement will spark sellers panick
• Taxes maybe keep people busy from buying that is support maybe sometimes maybe some
• A recession is in the forecast.
• ITK
• Holiday shortened week should produce a pause for the current march to new highs allowing a small decline back towards 2880 – 2900
• Time to consolidate
• elliott wave formation
• The market is overbought and earnings season is beginning.
• lower earnings
• overbought

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Question #4. What indicator influences your trading the most?

• RSI
• the wrong ones
• MAs
• chart
• Exponential & Simple moving averages, RSI, & volume.
• DIVERGENCES
• I use 3, cci, rsi and ma
• ma200
• Keltner channels
• Economic
• Elliott Wave
• RSI
• Rsi
• Interest rates
• Price-volume action and trend channels.
• Charts and MAs.
• S&P 500 Index, Russell 2000 Index
• Elliott Wave Theory and Stochastic/Momentum Index.
• SMA or DMA (10,20,50,200)
• MACD
• The bull will flood the market with commodities to service the consumers before the summer. The bear market will appear for the bartering agreements.
• 8 MA & the IC

Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• The Bitcoins have declined as negotiable instruments.

Join us for this week’s shows:

Crowd Forecast News Episode #220
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, April 15th, 2019
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Mark Sachs of RightLineTrading.com
– A.J. Brown of TradingTrainer.com
– Bennett McDowell of TradersCoach.com
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com (moderator)

Click here to find out more!

Analyze Your Trade Episode #73
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, April 16th, 2019
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Bryan Klindworth of AlphaShark.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com (moderator)