Week 113 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 57% Chance Lower
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and everyone’s comments are about their experience with trading options.
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator: 57% Chance Lower
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was “Lower,” however the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 61% change higher, and the S&P500 did end up 3.32% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is “Higher,” and the number of people selection higher is more than 10% great than those selecting lower, and there is a higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 21 times since the start of this project with the majority sentiment being correct only 43% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of -0.62% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting that the majority sentiment is probably wrong and that there’s a 57% chance that the S&P500 will go DOWN this coming week.
Click here to download TRReport112215.pdf
You can download all past reports here.
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