Week 116 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 50% Chance Lower

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and everyone’s comments about the upcoming Fed meeting.

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator: 50% Chance Lower
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was “Higher,” and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 55% change Lower. The S&P500 ended down 3.73% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is “Higher,” and there is a higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 36 times since the start of this project with the majority sentiment being incorrect 50% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of -0.47% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator cannot pick a direction this week but is being listed as lower since a drop is likely to be larger than a gain.

Click here to download TRReport121315.pdf

You can download all past reports here.

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Each week several top trading experts discuss the above report report and give their thoughts about current market conditions. Fill out the survey each week, then watch the show to compare your opinions with the experts!

Date and Time:
– Monday , December 14th, 2015
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Guests:
– James Ramelli of AlphaShark.com
– Jason Alan Jankovsky of TheLionOnline.com
– Eric Wilkinson of PROTraderStrategies.com
– Alla Peters of FibonacciTradingInstitute.com

Moderator:
– E. Matthew Buckley of TopGunOptions.com

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