Week 122 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 61% Chance Higher
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and everyone’s comments about what styles of trading or methodologies they have had the most success with.
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 61% Chance Higher
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 60% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended up 0.97% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is Higher (with a greater than 10% difference) and with a slightly higher average confidence on the bullish side. Similar conditions have been observed 31 times since the start of this project with the majority sentiment being correct 58% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of 0.36% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is making a prediction of 58% Chance Higher for this week.
Click here to download TRReport012416.pdf
You can download all past reports here.
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Each week several top trading experts discuss the above report report and give their thoughts about current market conditions. Fill out the survey each week, then watch the show to compare your opinions with the experts!
Date and Time:
– Monday, January 24th, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Guests:
– Andrew Keene of AlphaShark.com
– Steve Lentz of OptionVue.com
– Jonathan Rose of ActiveDayTrader.com
– Corey Rosenbloom of AfraidToTrade.com
Moderator:
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com
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