Week 123 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: NONE (54/46)
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and everyone’s comments about gold in their portfolios.
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: NONE (54/46)
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 61% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended up 1.78% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is Higher (with a greater than 10% difference) and with a slightly higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 24 times since the start of this project with the majority sentiment being correct only 46% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of -0.59% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator would have been 54% Chance Higher, however previous weeks with forecasts less than 55% have been too often wrong to be of any use, so no forecast this week.
Click here to download TRReport013116.pdf
You can download all past reports here.
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Date and Time:
– Monday, February 1st, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Guests:
– John Netto of TheProteanTrader.com
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
– James Ramelli of AlphaShark.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
Moderator:
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com
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