Week 129 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 63% Chance Higher
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and find out what 90.5% of respondents think the Fed will do next week!
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 63% Chance Higher
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 59% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended up 1.31% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is strongly Higher (with a more than 10% difference) and with a higher average confidence on the bullish side. Similar conditions have been observed 32 times in the 129 weeks since the start of this project with the majority sentiment being correct 63% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of 0.40% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is predicting a 63% chance of the S&P500 moving higher this week.
Click here to download TRReport031316.pdf
You can download all past reports here.
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Each week several top trading experts discuss the above report report and give their thoughts about current market conditions. Fill out the survey each week, then watch the show to compare your opinions with the experts!
Date and Time:
– Monday, March 14th, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Guests:
– Sang Lucci of SangLucci.com
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Kurt Capra of Pristine.com
– Thomas DeLello of OrderFlowEdge.com
Moderator:
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com
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