Week 133 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 59% Chance Higher
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and find out when everyone thinks the Fed will next raise interest rates.
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 59% Chance Higher
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 57% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended down 0.09% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is Lower and with a higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 22 times in the 133 weeks since the start of this project with the majority sentiment being correct only 41% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of 0.09% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 59% chance of the S&P500 moving higher this week.
Click here to download TRReport041016.pdf
You can download all past reports here.
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Each week several top trading experts discuss the above report report and give their thoughts about current market conditions. Fill out the survey each week, then watch the show to compare your opinions with the experts!
Date and Time:
– Monday, April 11th, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Guests:
– Henry Schwartz of Trade-Alert.com
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Ed Carlson of SeattleTechnicalAdvisors.com
– James Ramelli of AlphaShark.com
Moderator:
– Doug Robertson of TopGunOptions.com
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