Week 138 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 57% Chance Lower
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and find out how everyone monitors their trading progress over time.
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 57% Chance Lower
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 52% Chance Lower; the S&P500 ended down 0.53% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is strongly Lower (greater than 20% difference) and with a higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 7 times in the last 138 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 57% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of -0.49% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 57% Chance Lower for the week.
Click here to download TRReport051516.pdf
You can download all past reports here.
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– Monday, May 16th, 2016
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