Week 141 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 61% Chance Higher
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and find out what everyone thinks automated trading.
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 61% Chance Higher
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 65% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended down 0.05% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is Lower (less than 10% difference) and with a higher average confidence on the bullish side. Similar conditions have been observed 18 times in the previous 140 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 39% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of 0.14% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 61% Chance Higher for the week.
Click here to download TRReport060516.pdf
You can download all past reports here.
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Date and Time:
– Monday, June 6th, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Guests:
– Lance Ippolito of AlphaShark.com
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
– Henry Schwartz of Trade-Alert.com
Moderator:
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com
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