Week 143 Report – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 60% Chance Higher
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers and find out what everyone thinks about this coming week’s Brexit vote.
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 60% Chance Higher
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 58% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended down 0.98% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is Lower (less than 10% difference) and with a higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 25 times in the previous 142 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct only 40% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of up 0.27% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 60% Chance Higher for the week.
Click here to download TRReport061916.pdf
You can download all past reports here.
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Each week several top trading experts discuss the above report report and give their thoughts about current market conditions. Fill out the survey each week, then watch the show to compare your opinions with the experts!
Date and Time:
– Monday, June 20th, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Guests:
– Mary Ellen McGonagle of PROTraderStrategies.com
– Andrew Keene of AlphaShark.com
– Roy Swanson of SteadyTrader.com
– Jason Alan Jankovsky of TheLionOnline.com
Moderator:
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com
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