Weekly Report #148 – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 55% Chance Lower
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers.
Click here to download the report: TRReport072416.pdf
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 55% Chance Lower
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 67% Chance Higher; the S&P500 ended up 0.60% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is Higher (greater than 10% difference) and with a higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 20 times in the previous 147 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 45% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of down 0.78% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 55% Chance Lower for the week.
You can download all past reports here.
Presentation:
TimingResearch.com Web Show – Episode 96 (Report #148)
Date and Time:
– Monday, July 25th, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Description:
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Guests:
– Tom Essaye of SevensReport.com
– Mary Ellen McGonagle of PROTraderStrategies.com
– Fausto Pugliese of CyberTradingUniversity.com
– Ed Carlson of SeattleTechnicalAdvisors.com
Moderator:
– E. Matthew “Whiz” Buckley of TopGunOptions.com
Click here to register to watch the show live and get the archive!