Weekly Report #152 – Crowd Forecast Indicator: 56% Chance Lower

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, click on the link below to view the full report including the update on sentiment numbers.

Click here to download the report: TRReport082116.pdf

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 56% Chance Lower
This indicator prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 2+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment was Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 53% Chance Lower; the S&P500 ended down 0.10% for the week. This week’s majority sentiment is also Lower (greater than 10% difference) and with a higher average confidence on the bearish side. Similar conditions have been observed 16 times in the previous 151 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 44% of the time with an average S&P500 move for the week of up 0.31% during those weeks. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting 56% Chance Lower for the week.

You can download all past reports here.

Presentation:
TimingResearch.com Web Show – Episode #100

Date and Time:
– Monday, August 22nd, 2016
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Description:
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Guests:
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.com
– Jason Alan Jankovsky of TheLionOnline.com
– James Ramelli of AlphaShark.com
– Christian Fromhertz of TribecaTradeGroup.com

Moderator:
– Dave Landry of DaveLandry.com

Click here to register to watch the show live and get the archive!