Crowd Forecast News Report #245
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport060318.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (June 4th to June 8th)?
(The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher/Lower Difference: 31.6%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 67.5%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 70.4%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 61.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 8.5%
Responses Submitted This Week: 42
26-Week Average Number of Responses: 50.0
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 58% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 4+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 64.6% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 54% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 1.09% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 65.8% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 12 times in the previous 244 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 58% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.13% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting an 58% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 67.5%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 70.4%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 61.9%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• first week of the month whem401k money flows in.
• On Weekly Chart Timeframe, I see an uptrend doji candlestic pattern at level of support
• Trade war is fake news at its obvious peak. The back and forth will continue to swing higher and lower wit a mean of generally higher. Gold and oil doing their dance for now.
• break above resistance
• I feel like the strength of the market has overcome a myriad of systemic obstacles
• good economic statistics
• Employment figures
• S&P bounced, and closed near its week’s high on Friday, helped by a positive jobs report. The momentum favors the bulls at this point.
• The good news that turned the market around last week will have a small but positive carry thru this coming week
• constructive pause, higher lows
• Weekly averages (DOW and S&P) have been moving slowly in an up direction.
• The market will never go down
• DIA trending turns up…
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• S&P500 is at the top of its recent range (~2700 – ~2740). If it breaks to the upside, then further gains can be expected. However, with trade war rhetoric back in focus, I’m looking for the S&P500 to stay range bound this week.
• Summer sell off began 2 weeks ago
• Trade Wars. US economy overheating and will cause oversupply.
• Sell in May and go away.
• The downside correction will not be complete until there is a selling climax. Just get me out.
• Erraticness of Administrations policies is starting to sink in andf it is NOT good for the markets
• poor momentum and breadth
• I believe the international trade conflict could have a bearish effect on the S&P
• Trump’s tariffs
• trading war
Question #4. Which indicator influences your trading the most?
• No one indicator on its own influences my trading. However, if I had to pick & use only one; I’d probably go with Stochastics.
• Price action
• Fibonacci ratios
• News and earnings.
• Rsi7 and the nyse tick
• previous day’s change along with volume, particularly institutional
• elliott wave theory
• Elliott Wave
• Dow and other indictors up or down.
• Price action; also support/resistance areas.
• the oil stocks
• PRICE ACTION
• Moving averages and volume.
• chaikin oscillator
• Slow stochastics
BONUS #1: Do you regularly listen to or watch any financial, investing, or trading-related web shows or podcasts (besides the TimingResearch shows)?
BONUS #2: Which shows or podcasts do you watch or listen to?
• Cnbc. Tfnn
• TimingResearch, Jim Craemer, BNN
• CNBC——all day
• cnbc in morning and power lunch
• TheoTrade nightly update
BONUS #3: Which platforms or apps do you use to watch or listen to the shows (e.g. YouTube, Stitcher, iTunes, etc.)?
• IPAD / Bob the Trader
• Google, youtube, wherever they’re forecast.
• Ninja Trader with Decision Trader
• You Tube
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• Price is King
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #183
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, June 4th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
– Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– John Thomas of MadHedgeFundTrader.com
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #37
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, June 5th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– Jim Kenney of OptionProfessor.com
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com
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