Crowd Forecast News Report #254
The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.
Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport080518.pdf
Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (August 6th to August 10th)?
(The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)
Higher: 62.2%
Lower: 37.8%
Higher/Lower Difference: 24.3%
Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.
Average of All Responses: 65.8%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 67.6%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 62.9%
Higher/Lower Difference: 4.8%
Responses Submitted This Week: 41
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 49.8
TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 73% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 4+ year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.
Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 53.8% Lower, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 64% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.76% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 62.2% Higher with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 26 times in the previous 253 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 73% of the time, with an average S&P500 move of 0.42% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 73% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.
Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).
Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.0%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 54.9%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 72.7%
Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.
Weekly Reports Page: TimingResearch.com/reports
Raw Data Page: TimingResearch.com/rawdata
Current Survey Page: TimingResearch.com/currentsurvey
Any feedback: TimingResearch.com/contact
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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at TimingResearch.com/data.
Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.
“Higher” Respondent Answers:
• The S&P500 continued to hold support at 2800 last week & market internals remain positive. As long as 2800 holds, chances are good for continued gains. Overwhelmingly positive earnings & the strong economy seem to be minimizing the threats of a possible trade war & other geopolitical issues.
• Trump agenda
• We are on the war path. Mid East tensions in hormuz good for markets and oil.
• Potential for easing of some trade tensions
• After disaster , food is high price ….structure will re-new able. most of those countries will back home
• Tested support at 2800. Time for a rally to new highs at 2875.
• Technical analysis
• Earnings season is about over. Elections aren’t yet. Tariffs, or media misinterpretation of tariffs, is major predictable challenge.
• The market bounced off a gap down on Thurs morning, and moved up. It ignored the payrolls report and China trade news; and continued up on Friday. Staying with the trend for the new week.
• My biggest reason for stocks moving slightly upward is good earnings. I think we will have a repeat of the last two weeks where stocks only make a slight upward move.
• easy money from europe and japan
• Banks buy stocks
“Lower” Respondent Answers:
• Market inexes topping.
• Pattern recognition, market is overbought,
• Much talk about high valuations for fang and similar stocks Increase in interest rates will be a factor
• tariffs
• Seasonality and general market atmosphere and price actions.
• Elliott wave
• The downside correction in stocks will continue. The institutional favorites are breaking down.
• It is almost at its peak and I expect it go down before end of next week. Also VIX started its upward trend at around 1:30 PM today, August 3.
• Do your own research
• We should see a drastic drop 2 of the first 4 days if some of my long term studies work. A BIG LOW potential around end of the week.
Question #4. What advice would you give and/or what resources would you recommend to someone who is new to trading?
• Know the days, hours and 15 min trend and follow a shorter time frame. Resist dumb & impulsive entries
• Don’t pick tops or bottoms, just follow trend.
• Play with the technical indicators until you find one or two that prove reliable to you.
• Profit only
• Test EVERY idea with paper-trading before betting the rent money on it.
• don’t
• Start by reading a lot and trading without real money. Watch out for email offers promising to make you rich.
• be careful use stops for hedge with put contracts if you have big positions
• read, don’t pay for advice
• Don’t
• Adopt some trading rules. Especially position size & risk limits per trade. Then stick to your rules.
• Mind focus. The rest is academic.
• Learn charting. Go slow. Learn position sizing.
• food securities for earth disappear
• Read Elder’s latest edition of “Trading for a Living” (whether planning on trading for a living or not) to understand the necessary requirements & and an idea of realistic expectations to successfully trade for the long term.
• Learn to paper trade and attend experts’ webinars.
• Test everything!
• Start with a sufficient amount of capital.
• Practice on fake accounts before putting your money into the investments
Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?
• A significant rotation should be coming in next days and weeks.
• Is it time to go to all cash? I’m at 60% and feel like I would be better out than in. Problem i went to big cash early
• Gold floor and basing ready for liftoff!
• Everything will conflict within stomach and chemical food
Join us for this week’s shows:
Crowd Forecast News Episode #191
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.
Date and Time:
– Monday, August 6th, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– John Hoagland of TopStepTrader.com (first time guest!)
– Rob Hanna of InvestiQuant.com & QuantifiableEdges.com (moderator)
– Anka Metcalf of TradeOutLoud.com
– Neil Batho of TraderReview.net
– Simon Klein of TradeSmart4x.com
Analyze Your Trade Episode #44
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.
Date and Time:
– Tuesday, August 7th, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)
Moderator and Guests:
– Dean Jenkins of FollowMeTrades.com (moderator)
– Larry Gaines of PowerCycleTrading.com
– TBA
Partner Offer:
While SHOP dropped less than 6% that day, Jeff was able to show his members how he made over 70%, or a whopping $41,400 from that move. He’s putting his money where his mouth is.
Click here to learn more.