Crowd Forecast News Report #265

The new TimingResearch report for the week has been posted, you can download the full PDF report with the link below or you can read the full report in this post below.

Click here to download report in PDF format: TRReport102118.pdf

Question #1. Which direction do you think the S&P500 index will move from this coming Monday’s open to Friday’s close (October 22nd to October 26th)?
The order of possible responses to this question on the survey were randomized for each viewer.)

Higher: 43.3%
Lower: 56.7%
Higher/Lower Difference: -13.3%

Question #2. Rate your confidence in your answer to Question #2 by estimating the probability you have correctly predicted next week’s market move.

Average of All Responses: 65.7%
Average For “Higher” Responses: 66.2%
Average For “Lower” Responses: 65.3%
Higher/Lower Difference: 0.9%

Responses Submitted This Week: 32
52-Week Average Number of Responses: 46.3

TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Prediction: 64% Chance Higher
This prediction is an attempt by the editor of this newsletter to use the full 5 year history of data collected from this project to forecast a probability estimate for whether this week’s sentiment is going to be correct and ultimately what the markets will do this coming week.

Details: Last week’s majority sentiment from the survey was 51.4% Higher, and the Crowd Forecast Indicator prediction was 54% Chance Higher; the S&P500 closed 0.14% Higher for the week. This week’s majority sentiment from the survey is 56.7% Lower with a greater average confidence from those who responded Higher. Similar conditions have been observed 36 times in the previous 264 weeks, with the majority sentiment being correct 36% of the time, and with an average S&P500 move of 0.07% Higher for the week. Based on that history, the TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Indicator is forecasting a 64% Chance that the S&P500 is going to move Higher this coming week.

Raw Data Page (raw data files include full history spreadsheet and the above charts):

Full Weekly Results (full version of this chart available in the raw data spreadsheet for this week, “Date” field below lists the Monday of the week being predicted).

Overall Sentiment All-Time “Correct” Percentage: 51.5%
Overall Sentiment 52-Week “Correct” Percentage: 60.8%
Overall Sentiment 12-Week “Correct” Percentage: 63.6%

Only the previous 52 weeks of data are shown below, please download the raw data to see the full range of past data.

Weekly Reports Page:
Raw Data Page:
Current Survey Page:
Any feedback:

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NOTE: The following open-ended answers are solely the opinions of the anonymous respondents to this survey. Responses are mostly unedited, but some have been reformatted slightly for to make them easier to read. Some irrelevant responses (e.g. “none”), or anything obviously fake, or copy and pasted responses have been omitted. All-caps responses have been changed to all lowercase. All responses for each week, unedited, are available in the raw data spreadsheets at

Question #3. For your answer to Question #1, please share what specific reason(s) you think the S&P500 will be heading the direction you chose.

“Higher” Respondent Answers:

• Great earnings
• good earnings reports
• Bargain Hunting & Solid Earnings Reports
• history
• at support now
• Best six months of the year starts November

“Lower” Respondent Answers:

• Sucker Rally failed
• Doesn’t seem to be getting much attention.
• Market sentiment negative.
• rising oil prices and rising interest rates
• Trend appears to be down
• Earnings disappointments and downgrades
• still in October
• The downside correction continues as moving averages are violated.
• Market still appears to be in a downtrend; so favoring continuation. Not highly confident, as positive earnings announcements this coming week could lift market.

Partner Offer:

Tuesday, October 23rd at 7:00pm ET: They’re insiders – CEOs, CFOs, board members and other executives with access to key, non-public information about their companies. Information they use to get very rich.

Question #4. What procedures do you use to monitor and evaluate your trading results and progress over time?

• I don’t really have one. I just go with instinct
• Increases in net worth
• Charts and VectorVest
• Aggregate Percentage yield on my beat stocks
• Risk/reward ratios
• I track every trade & calculate results at end of each month
• market moving my stock picks higher and if the companies continue to grow with increased revenues.
• Document all trades in spreadsheet

Question #5. Additional Comments/Questions/Suggestions?

• none

Join us for this week’s shows:

Crowd Forecast News Episode #200
This week’s show will feature a discussion with the trading experts listed below about the most recent TimingResearch Crowd Forecast Newsletter report, where they think the S&P500 is headed, what they are watching for in the markets currently, and their best trading idea.

Date and Time:
– Monday, October 22nd, 2018
– 1PM ET (10AM PT)

Moderator and Guests:
– Serge Berger of (first time guest!)
– Neil Batho of
– Simon Klein of
– Dave Landry of (moderator)

Click here to find out more!

Analyze Your Trade Episode #53
When you register, you will be prompted to list the top 5 stocks that you are interested in trading. We will list the top 5 from all registrants and our experts will be prepared to offer their opinions on these trades.

Date and Time:
– Tuesday, October 23rd, 2018
– 4:30PM ET (1:30PM PT)

Moderator and Guests:

Click here to find out more!

Partner Offer:

Tuesday, October 23rd at 7:00pm ET: They’re insiders – CEOs, CFOs, board members and other executives with access to key, non-public information about their companies. Information they use to get very rich.

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